The GOP's Advantage in House Races

This Huffington Post article talks about how recent strategic gerrymandering by the Republicans will likely help their chances in the fall. One of the most interesting points is that its been easy for the Republicans to gerrymander districts to be strongly Republican since the Democrats tend to center in urban areas.  

Madisonian Politics and Party Factions

4-I:

• Ideas
• Interests 
• Institutions
• Individuals

Reviewing the polarization story:

• PIE polarization
• POG polarization
• Polarization of districts
• Graphic
• Polarization of districts

Voting on the Floor

• CQ: Voting alignments in Congress
• National Journal: Ideology and party in Congress
• The fading of the Blue Dogs
• Iraq vote in House and Senate

Alex Roarty writes at National Journal (compare to Connelly, ch. 2):

Bracing for a rough midterm-election outcome, Democrats aren't waiting until Election Day to start blaming one another for the party's problems. Anticipating the possibility that Republicans will flip the Senate, the finger-pointing game is already underway between the party's warring factions.

Earlier this month, Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas argued liberals had successfully purged so-called squishy moderates from the Democratic Party's ranks—even if those same lawmakers had helped the party retain conservative-leaning Senate and House seats. From the middle, the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way has become more outspoken in criticizing progressive leaders, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, for advocating an agenda that will compromise the party's ability to attract moderate voters.

The public spats between outside groups are nothing compared with the private finger-pointing over who could be responsible if Republicans ride a political wave this year. The moderate wing is prepared to blame the party for avoiding centrist initiatives like free-trade deals and entitlement reform, while the Left will argue party leaders didn't do enough to protect benefits.

Democrats Demographic Troubles

The Wall Street Journal and the Pew Research Center released several statistics on the 2014 midterms putting Democrats behind Republicans in several key demographics including millennials and independents. However, the biggest problem for the Dems appears to be President Obama's approval rating is 44%, the same as Bush's approval rating in 2006 when the Reps lost Congress.

Another Hit for Christie's Presidential Chances

Chris Christie's office released an internal review earlier this week that found the governor had no knowledge of the events surrounding "Bridgegate". Unfortunately for Christie, the report received a lot of criticism for being sexist toward former Deputy Chief of Staff Bridget Anne Kelly. As the article explains, "the report commissioned by Mr. Christie and released Thursday doubles down on a strategy of portraying Ms. Kelly as duplicitous, weeping frequently and dependent on men for approval and stability." The report brings up personal events, including a breakup, and calls Bridget Anne Kelly "emotional". The same report later mentions Christie crying during a press conference, but presents that incident in a positive light.

The report and its elements of sexism could be damaging to Christie, particularly because he polled well among women even after "Bridgegate". It also allows reporters and Democratic strategists to continue talking about Bridgegate, even though Christie hoped the report would give him a fresh start.

This FiveThirtyEight article reminded me of our class conversation about presidential coattails. Specifically, the article says that gubernatorial politics are becoming increasingly nationalized and more closely resemble presidential races. This is a shift away from the historical emphasis on local politics.

"Voters are likely to see them as Democrats and Republicans first, and as individual candidates a distant second. In recent years, gubernatorial elections have become increasingly nationalized, to the point where voting patterns in these races bear a striking resemblance to those in presidential races. If we look at all sitting governors, just 15 of the 50 lead states that were won by the other party in the last presidential election."

This Ad Has an Opening Line that You Will Never Forget

And see Colbert's take.

GOP Leads On Enthusiasm

CBS conducted a poll and found that GOP voters were more enthusiastic about the midterm elections than Dem voters.

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/03/2014-poll-gop-leads-on-enthusiasm-105052.html?hp=r8

Senate Dems Unveil Plan to Keep Senate Blue

This CNN article outlines the Senate Democrats' new plan to keep the Senate. They argue the ACA is not a priority to most voters, but also admit they cannot run from the law--instead, endangered Dems are taking a "fix it, don't end it' approach. They also hope voter frustrations are with "a system that makes it hard to get ahead, especially middle class voters," not the ACA itself. 

21 of 36 currently-Democratic seats are up for reelection. Half of these are in Republican or swing states.

"Why Ted Cruz is the real-life Frank Underwood"

Pretty funny/interesting article for the House of Cards fans...

"But to come to that conclusion is to miss the rationale behind his actions entirely. The shutdown fiasco was Cruz's most Underwoodian moment, because he must have known all along that his gambit never would have worked. The only possible benefit could have been to Cruz himself.

Perhaps more than anyone in Washington, Cruz understands the revolutionary dynamic of politics in the age of social media. Why follow the traditions of the Senate — spending a decade or more learning its labyrinthine rules, rising slowly through its ranks of seniority, deferring to party leadership at every step — when instantaneous communication and mobilization allows a smart, impatient politician to go over the heads of Mitch McConnell and John Boehner to appeal directly to the restive Republicans masses, both to flatter them and convince them that he and he alone is their champion and savior?"

Research Assignment

Pick one:

• If you are taking part in the legislative simulation, analyze your experience. Consider your senator's place in the party system.  Is that senator a party loyalist or maverick, a leader, loner, or follower?In this light, how well did your positions and goals match those of your real-life counterpart? What methods did you use? In the circumstance that you dealt with, would your counterpart have done the same? How did the simulation both resemble and differ from the real world?  
• The Connelly book came out in 2010.  Write an postscript.  Explain how events since then have either confirmed or disconfirmed the book's major arguments.  You may also consider whether the past four years have raised relevant questions that the book did not consider.
• Appraise President Obama's performance as leader of the Democratic Party.  What were his goals for the party?  In light of political and institutional constraints, how well did he perform?
• Write a memo to Mitch McConnell or Harry Reid.  Explain what he can do during the coming months to maximize his party's chances in the 2014 midterm election.
• Write on another topic of your choice, subject to my approval.

The specifications:

• Essays should be typed (12-point), double-spaced, and no more than six pages long. I will not read past the sixth page. 
• Cite your sources. Please use endnotes in the format of Chicago Manual of Style. Endnotes do not count against the page limit. Please do not use footnotes, which take up too much page space. 
• Watch your spelling, grammar, diction, and punctuation. Errors will count against you. Return essays (in Word format) to the Sakai dropbox for this class by 5 PM, Friday, April 11. Papers will drop one gradepoint for one day’s lateness, a full letter grade after that.

Presidents, Judges, Legislators, and Polarization

Simulation

A big gaffe

Presidents as party leaders

• Presidents and PO
• Presidents and POG:  OFA and Priorities USA
• Political affairs office
• Coattails?
• Presidents and midterms

Judicial branch

• SCOTUS biographies
• The Federalist Society

The polarization story:

• PIE polarization
• POG polarization

CQ: Voting alignments in Congress
National Journal:  Ideology and party in Congress

State Governments

• GOP gains after 2010
• One-party states

I need your help, NAME

Name, this one's easy: Chances are, you know someone who needs to get covered -- maybe it's a family member, a friend, a coworker, or a neighbor. Forward this email to them today. Tell them it's the last call to sign up on the health insurance marketplace for 2014, and this is where to get started: http://www.HealthCare.gov For anyone who wants the peace of mind of having health care, or who wants to take advantage of the financial assistance available to millions of uninsured Americans, there's no time to wait. The deadline is March 31st. I'm counting on people like you, and groups like OFA, to spread the word. Pass along the link above, and help someone you know get covered. Just hearing it from you will mean a lot. And it means a lot to me to know there are folks like you out there doing your part. Thank you, Barack Obama

PAID FOR BY ORGANIZING FOR ACTION.

Contributions or gifts to Organizing for Action are not tax deductible.

This email was sent to: email. If that is not your preferred email address, you can update your information. We believe that emails are a vital way to stay in direct contact with supporters. Click if you'd like to unsubscribe from these messages. Organizing for Action, P.O. Box 66732 Washington, D.C. 20035

Clinton's Party Networks

From Buzzfeed, a story that continues to illustrate how everyone is connected:

In the network of outside groups coalescing around Clinton’s possible candidacy, Brock is the common link. While running his research-focused group, Brock sits on the board of Priorities USA Action, the super PAC planning to fund Clinton’s campaign with high-dollar contributions, and he serves as an advisor to Ready for Hillary, another PAC set on building Clinton a vast list of supporters... Brock is also friends with a number of prominent donors these days, including Steve Bing and Susie Tompkins Buell, one of the people closest to Hillary Clinton.

Read the full article here .

Partisan Politics and The Supreme Court

In relation to Tuesday's reading --

UC Irvine Law School Dean Erwin Chermerinsky recently wrote an op-ed calling for Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who turned 81 this past weekend, to retire this summer. Chermerinsky argues that Ginsburg's retirement would allow Obama to appoint another liberal justice to the Court before the 2016 election. If Ginsburg waits until 2016, Senate Republicans could delay the confirmation process until the new president takes office. If Ginsburg waits until 2015 and the Republicans win a majority in the Senate, the nomination could be filibustered.

Although Ginsburg has denied that she will retire, Chermerinsky's op-ed sparked debate regarding whether or not a justice should retire for ideological reasons.

Op-ed here.

Nate Silver Scares Democrats with Senate Predictions

Political elections guru and statistician Nate Silver predicted Republicans would gain exactly 6 seats in the upcoming elections, just enough to regain control of the Senate house.  Guy Cecil (executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee) deemed Silver's predictions worthy of an official statement that downplays Silver's sources.

Link Here:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/24/nate-silver-gop-senate_n_5020271.html

Party in Government I

Presidents and political networks

Edmund Burke:

But whatever the distinguished few may have been, it is the substance and mass of the body which constitutes its character and must finally determine its direction. In all bodies, those who will lead, must also, in a considerable degree, follow. They must conform their propositions to the taste, talent, and disposition, of those whom they wish to conduct: therefore, if an assembly is viciously or feebly composed in a very great part of it, nothing but such a supreme degree of virtue as very rarely appears in the world, and for that reason cannot enter into calculation, will prevent the men of talent disseminated through it from becoming only the expert instruments of absurd projects!

Hill leadership

• House
• Senate

Gingrich

• Gingrich's backstory
• The special case of the Contract with America (Newt at 47 minutes in)

Voting alignments in Congress

Presidential leadership

• Larry O'Brien
• Nixon reflects on the 1972 election

State Governments

• GOP gains after 2010
• One-party states

Following Up On the Growth and Opportunity Project

From the March 17th edition of Politico's Playbook, the RNC is launching a six-figure cable and digital ad buy to mark the one-year anniversary of its Growth and Opportunity Project. The campaign is focused in states with 2014 Senate races and tested well in focus-groups with women, bilingual voters and disaffected Obama voters. The first ad of the campaign features individuals from demographics that the Growth and Opportunity Project indicated the Republican Party needed to reach out to, including young women, Asian-Americans, African-Americans, and Hispanics.

For Professor Pitney:

http://www.upworthy.com/president-obama-burns-a-rude-celebrity-and-then-teaches-him-how-to-get-it-treated?c=ufb1

Making Democrats cool?

Party Images, Party Reform

Reince Priebus succeeded the worst national party chair ever.

The Growth and Opportunity Project

Messaging:

• GOP Favorability
• Democratic Favorability
• Specific issue perceptions

Demographic Partners

• 2008 and 2012 Exit Polls
• The Generation Gap
• But Democrats Have Problems, Too

Campaign Mechanics

• ORCA in 2012
• Obama legacy report

Friends and Allies

• America Rising

Readier for Hillary

At Time, Mark Halperin writes that the pro-Hillary Super PAC Ready for Hillary has ramped up its campaign activity. The Super PAC, which includes some former Obama campaign officials, sent volunteers to Iowa Democratic county conventions to solicit voter contact information. Furthermore, Ready for Hillary has been fundraising by asking supporters to donate $20.16 and is organizing a high roller dinner with contributions ranging from $1,000 to $2,500. Unsuprisingly, Halperin notes that the PAC's host committe includes many loyalists and lobbyists long connected with the Clinton network. On the tech side, Ready for Hillary is redesigning its website to make it social media friendly and easier to connect with core liberal constituencies.

Tea Party pushes back against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell

Article
This is more based on our discussion last week but I thought it was an interesting read, and it includes campaign tactics, a PACs influence on these tactics, and the Tea Party. This article discusses comments recently made by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell regarding his Tea Party supported challenger and the Tea Party as a whole. Tea Party groups responded aggressively, and McConnell's campaign organizers realized he made a mistake in saying this; one of his spokeswomen commented that McConnell is actually a big fan of the Tea Party, and was actually attacking the Senate Conservatives Fund, a PAC that is allegedly more interested in attacking Republican's to raise money rather than "actual conservative governance".

Parties, Conventions, and the General Election Campaign

Review: The nomination contest and the general election campaign
Convention moments
Worst Convention Ever

GDP Growth and forecasts



Strategy: The Message Grid


Classic Campaign Messages

Pew Finds that Young Adults are Optimistic and Liberal

According to a Pew Research Center poll released over the weekend, Milennials are more optimistic and liberal than other generations. They are also less religious, less likely to refer to themselves as "patriotic," and more likely to vote Democratic than older Americans. Their liberal beliefs translate into a greater acceptance of gay rights and an activist government. The LA Times also summarizes the research

The GOP Calls in Twitter and Facebook

The GOP reached out to Facebook and Twitter to advise them on their social media presence for the midterm and presidential elections. 

"Seymour and Greenberger suggested campaigns would be well served by investments in staff to maintain social media accounts, so followers' responses don't go unaddressed."-- another skill one of us could bring to a campaign! 

Article here.

Oppo and Conventions

From POLITICO Playbook - POLITICO.com:

EXCLUSIVE : Las Vegas is one of the RNC's finalists for the 2016 convention, and plenty of Republicans are calling it the favorite, based on the hope that casino magnate Sheldon Adelson would contribute generously, obviating the financial worries that plague most host committees. But Playbook has learned that American Bridge, the Democratic tracking and opposition research outfit founded by David Brock and run by Brad Woodhouse, plans to devote up to three dozen trackers with video cameras to Sin City if the GOP picks it. American Bridge has committed to deploy what a source called a 'tracking operation on steroids' to cover the plethora of venues sure to attract Republican politicians and operatives.

Per a Democratic source: 'American Bridge's plans would scatter trackers with video cameras from one end of the Strip to the other and would include a rapid response war room in the city to turn the footage into instant products -- even potentially television ads -- exposing whatever activities and hypocricies they catch on film. ... American Bridge's efforts ... would be looking to capture everything from the late night carousing of politicians to simply filming candidates who claim to be the bastion of family values entering and exiting bars and casinos.'

--AMERICAN BRIDGE has already opened a website that promises: "[I]f the RNC does choose Las Vegas, this is the site for all the action. What happens in Vegas... will go right here." www.sincitygop.com

--OTHER OPTIONS: Vegas is one of the RNC's eight finalists, along with Dallas, Denver, Kansas City, Phoenix and an intriguing three-way Ohio contest among Cincinnati, Cleveland and Columbus. As an indication of the effort the cities put into their pitches, the political heat that Kansas City deployed for its presentation Monday to the RNC's site selection committee included Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.); Linda Bond, fundraising consultant and wife of former Sen. Kit Bond (R-Mo.); and Jack Oliver, KC2016 national finance co-chair, former RNC deputy chairman, and now senior policy adviser at Bryan Cave Strategies.

The Republican Primary in 2016

This article discusses three previous presidential candidates and their chances for the nomination in 2016, touching on Huckabee's (lack of) fundraising ability, Santorum's motivation of the religious right, and Rick Perry's debate mistakes.

HRC's K Street Network

The following excerpts nicely illustrates the "network" theme of our course.  Click the link for the full story.  Throughout the excerpts, I have included links to other items with more information on political networks.

Kevin Bogardus reports at The Hill:

Hillary Clinton’s K Street network is preparing for a White House run in 2016.

With Democrats in Congress already anointing Clinton as the party’s standard-bearer, lobbyists are pledging their allegiance and making clear they will do whatever they can to help the former first lady become first in command.

...

Many of the lobbyists helped Clinton with her last run for the White House in 2008 and say they are willing and eager to jump back on the train.

“Absolutely, 100 percent,” said Steve Elmendorf, president of Elmendorf Ryan, when asked if he would support a Clinton run. “To me, it’s not even a close call. … Among Democrats, there’s no one else as well-positioned to win as her.”

Lobbyists are often crucial players in a candidate’s campaign, offering valuable political advice, strategy and policy expertise. They also serve as donors and bundlers of the cash needed to fund a national campaign.

Lawyers and lobbyists gave more than $18 million in campaign contributions toClinton’s 2008 presidential campaign, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

Elmendorf is among a number of prominent fundraisers on K Street who could help build a Clinton machine. Tony Podesta, chairman of Podesta Group, is anothercampaign rainmaker who is expected to support her if she runs.

In addition, a number of lobbyists and consultants have already taken formal positions with the “shadow campaign” that is being waged in Clinton’s name.

In January, Priorities USA Action announced that Jonathan Mantz of BGR Group would become a senior adviser. The super-PAC, which was created for President Obama’s reelection campaign, is retooling in anticipation of a Clinton bid.

Mantz was the national finance director for Clinton’s 2008 campaign. Jay Dunn, a senior managing director for FTI Consulting, was Mantz’s deputy in 2008, and lobbyists consider him a likely Clinton backer in 2016.

Another prominent K Street supporter is former Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.), who is an adviser to the super-PAC Ready for Hillary, which is already on the ground in primary states like Iowa and South Carolina.

“She [Clinton] is perhaps inevitable because of her enormous skills and experience. … Only she can make the decision, and she hasn’t yet. So we will just have to wait and see, but for many of us, she’s the one,” said Tauscher, who was undersecretary for arms control at the State Department with Clinton.

Tauscher is not a registered lobbyist, but she is a strategic adviser at Baker Donelson

Factions and Nominations

The Tea Party and yesterday's Texas primary

CBS/NYT compares Republicans:  Tea Party (42% of GOP identifiers) and Non-Tea Party (58%)



And views of the GOP field (percent who would like to see various candidates run for president):



Democratic factions

The Changing Calendar:




Who entered and left:



A snapshot of Candidate and Super PAC Money  in 2012:




And why the process worked to Obama's favor:




And the negative ads:



And why lots of debates are not necessarily a good thing:



Republicans did not choose Romney.  They settled for him.

Nominations

Simulation

Final words on voting rules

• Convenience voting
• Voter ID and Voting Fraud

Types of primaries

The blanket primary and California Democratic Party v. Jones.  Writing for the majority, Justice Scalia said:

In concluding that the burden Proposition 198 imposes on petitioners' rights of association is not severe, the Ninth Circuit cited testimony that the prospect of malicious crossover voting, or raiding, is slight, and that even though the numbers of "benevolent" crossover voters were significant, they would be determinative in only a small number of races. But a single election in which the party nominee is selected by nonparty members could be enough to destroy the party. In the 1860 presidential election, if opponents of the fledgling Republican Party had been able to cause its nomination of a pro-slavery candidate in place of Abraham Lincoln, the coalition of intraparty factions forming behind him likely would have disintegrated, endangering the party's survival and thwarting its effort to fill the vacuum left by the dissolution of the Whigs. Ordinarily, however, being saddled with an unwanted, and possibly antithetical, nominee would not destroy the party but severely transform it. "[R]egulating the identity of the parties' leaders," we have said, "may ... color the parties' message and interfere with the parties' decisions as to the best means to promote that message."

California's Top-Two Primary

McCaskill plays in the 2012 Missouri Republican primary:




Turnout -- presidential primaries


Is caucusing easy? HRC says so:


 


 Actual video:

 

IRS Reconsiders Political Activity

The IRS is reconsidering what qualifies as "political activity." They may begin to classify voter registration drives, get-out-the-vote drives, and events with political candidates as political activity. This would affect groups like Crossroads GPS. It would ALSO apply to nonprofits with genuinely no political agenda, like college campuses.

Parties as Networks: The Case of Kentucky

At The Huffington Post, Paul Blumenthal writes:

Steven Law, the head of the Crossroads groups founded by Republican strategist Karl Rove, has declared that reelecting Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) this year is a top priority. It's paramount to Crossroads' 2014 efforts to win back GOP control of the Senate and fight off the insurgent tea party. And for Law himself, who used to work for the Republican Senate leader, it's "personal."

Yet other than a web video attacking would-be challenger Ashley Judd in early 2013, Crossroads has not run any ads to support McConnell.

Instead, two local groups -- Kentuckians for Strong Leadership, a brand-new super PAC, and the Kentucky Opportunity Coalition, a repurposed nonprofit -- have spent more than $2 million to boost McConnell in his contests against tea party challenger Matt Bevin and Democratic opponent Alison Lundergan Grimes, the Kentucky secretary of state.

Behind the scenes, Crossroads' strategy becomes clearer. Deep connections between the Rove organization and the two Kentucky groups show that, despite their locally flavored names, the real power behind the latter groups emanates from the offices of Crossroads-linked consultants in Washington and Virginia.

Both pro-McConnell groups rely heavily on Crossroads' list of elite political consultants. Law sits on the board of Kentuckians for Strong Leadership, which -- according to Scott Jennings, a former McConnell aide hired to advise both pro-McConnell groups -- "makes decisions for the organization, including how to expend funds."

And the majority of the money reaching Kentuckians for Strong Leadership, which as a super PAC must disclose its donors, comes from Crossroads' donor network.

In 2010, NPR posted a chart of the Crossroads network.  Take a look.