This may influence the culture of resistance to the Trump Administration.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/30/technology/silicon-valley-trump.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fpolitics
Saturday, March 31, 2018
Friday, March 30, 2018
Inconsistency
On page 168 Lee writes: "Perusing the Congressional Record underscores that members are sometimes even self-conscious about their party's inconsistent behavior over time." Clearly, voting inconsistently is a result of the messaging and government-versus-opposition strategies. However I would not think that any members would want to admit that. Is this something that members acknowledge often?
Thursday, March 29, 2018
Party in Government: Messaging and Polarization
Politico offers an excellent example of the use of congressional votes for messaging:
1998 Impeachment and Iraq
Legacy -- Parties as PR operations
Lee, p. 135
Polarization in Congress
Different Americas
Note the last line in this table:
Congressional Mitosis:
"CQ Vote Studies: Party Unity." CQ Magazine (February 12, 2018).http://library.cqpress.com.ccl.idm.oclc.org/cqweekly/weeklyreport115-000005263236 .
GOP leaders are weighing a series of votes to make last year’s temporary tax cuts for individuals permanent, according to Republicans in both chambers. The strategy would portray the party as the guardian of Americans’ paychecks, Republicans say, and buoy the GOP during a brutal election year.
Republicans argue they win regardless of whether it culminates with a Rose Garden ceremony: Either Democrats support the legislation, giving the GOP a major legislative accomplishment in its scramble to save its majorities. Or, more likely, Democrats block the bill — allowing Republicans to paint them as opponents of the middle class.
“Can you imagine Democrats voting that down? I mean, how do you explain that one?” said Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas). “I just think they’d be in an impossible position. They’d have to support it.”Dick Morris explains triangulation:
1998 Impeachment and Iraq
Legacy -- Parties as PR operations
Lee, p. 135
Polarization in Congress
Different Americas
Note the last line in this table:
"CQ Vote Studies: Party Unity." CQ Magazine (February 12, 2018).http://library.cqpress.com.ccl.idm.oclc.org/cqweekly/weeklyreport115-000005263236 .
Wednesday, March 28, 2018
Tuesday, March 27, 2018
The Bolton PAC has used “psychographic models” from Cambridge Analytica to inform many of these ads
Bolton seems to offer some valuable insight to the Trump Campaign. One question I have: is it worth the exposure to the public?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=7&v=U4eYmHqGW6Y
https://m.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=7&v=U4eYmHqGW6Y
Party in Government: The Significance of 1994
- 1981-1996: Millennial
- 1965-1980: Gen X
- 1946-1964: Boomer
- 1928-1945: Silent
Review some basics
Hill leadership
Edmund Burke:
In all bodies, those who will lead, must also, in a considerable degree, follow. They must conform their propositions to the taste, talent, and disposition, of those whom they wish to conduct: therefore, if an assembly is viciously or feebly composed in a very great part of it, nothing but such a supreme degree of virtue as very rarely appears in the world, and for that reason cannot enter into calculation, will prevent the men of talent disseminated through it from becoming only the expert instruments of absurd projects!
Majority Minority
Pres Party Legislating Supporting president, sustaining
vetoes
Out Party Legislating & Messaging Mostly messaging
"Create veto moments" p. 65
The strategy of confrontation (start video at 2:00)
Leadership elections -- Gingrich wins for whip in 1989
Gingrich also leads GOPAC: which provides training materials and a platform for Newt
The Contract with America -- limited public knowledge
Clinton and Triangulation
Ohio Abortion Bill
We talked a little bit about Mississippi's abortion bill (suspended last week) - Ohio lawmakers are now proposing aggressive legislation to ban abortion entirely, with no exceptions: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/
Sunday, March 25, 2018
How Birth Year Influences Political Views
This was published in 2014, but I hadn't seen it until today. (Also, I apologize if we looked at this in class, it maybe looks familiar but I can't remember).
It's a pretty cool set of graphs that show how birth year, events, and presidencies affect longterm party preference. I know this is something we read about in Hershey in the beginning of the semester.
"The model assumes generations of voters choose their team, Democrats or Republicans, based on their cumulative life experience — a “running tally” of events. By using Gallup’s presidential approval rating as a proxy for those events, Yair Ghitza, chief scientist at Catalist, and Andrew Gelman, a political scientist and statistician at Columbia University, were able to estimate when political preferences are formed."
Link:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/07/08/upshot/how-the-year-you-were-born-influences-your-politics.html
It's a pretty cool set of graphs that show how birth year, events, and presidencies affect longterm party preference. I know this is something we read about in Hershey in the beginning of the semester.
"The model assumes generations of voters choose their team, Democrats or Republicans, based on their cumulative life experience — a “running tally” of events. By using Gallup’s presidential approval rating as a proxy for those events, Yair Ghitza, chief scientist at Catalist, and Andrew Gelman, a political scientist and statistician at Columbia University, were able to estimate when political preferences are formed."
Link:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/07/08/upshot/how-the-year-you-were-born-influences-your-politics.html
Thursday, March 22, 2018
Parties in Government II: Congress
Committees and the Simulation
New data on the composition of the parties
"A Protracted Era of Partisan Parity" -- It Was Not Always So
Edmund Burke:
Factions and Member Organizations
New data on the composition of the parties
"A Protracted Era of Partisan Parity" -- It Was Not Always So
ChrisnHouston - File:Control of the U.S. Senate.PNG File:Control of the U.S. House of Representatives.PNG
Four Strategic Postures Since 1980 (House, by election year)
Majority Minority
Pres Party Dems 92, 08 GOP 80-92,06
GOP 00, 02, 04, 16 Dem 94-00 10,12,14
Out Party GOP 94-00 10,12,14 GOP 08
Dem 80-92, 06 Dem 00, 02, 04, 16
Hill leadership
Edmund Burke:
In all bodies, those who will lead, must also, in a considerable degree, follow. They must conform their propositions to the taste, talent, and disposition, of those whom they wish to conduct: therefore, if an assembly is viciously or feebly composed in a very great part of it, nothing but such a supreme degree of virtue as very rarely appears in the world, and for that reason cannot enter into calculation, will prevent the men of talent disseminated through it from becoming only the expert instruments of absurd projects!Speakership Elections
Factions and Member Organizations
Anti-Establishment Candidate Surging in West Virginia Senate Race
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/20/west-virginia-senate-republicans-blankenship-472050
Tuesday, March 20, 2018
O'Rourke, Cruz Challenger, Rejects National Dem. Party Help
Beto O'Rourke, the Texas Democrat challenging Ted Cruz for his Senate seat, said in an interview that he doesn't want his campaign to become a national rallying call for Democrats. He wants to distance himself from Pelosi to portray himself as a left-leaning independent; others, however, argue that they only way for him to raise enough money and gain electoral traction is to partner with party leaders.
Party in Government
State Legislatures:
Recent detailed data
Trifectas
Key reason is that the South went from near-solid blue to near-solid red:
Party breakdown in Southern lower houses, post-1968 election (Democrat-Republican)
Alabama........ 106-0
Arkansas..........98-2
Florida............77-42
Georgia.........169-26
Louisiana.......105-0
Mississippi....122-0
N. Carolina.....91-29
S. Carolina.....119-5
Tennessee.......49-49
Texas.............142-8
Virginia...........86-14
The Result: Meth Labs of Democracy
Governors are different. Blue-state Republicans and our favorite red-state Democrat.
Presidents and Parties
The Obama Effect
See Schier, p. 73:
Decline in split-ticket districts 1972-2012 (Schier 77)
And in 2016:
Recent detailed data
Trifectas
Key reason is that the South went from near-solid blue to near-solid red:
Party breakdown in Southern lower houses, post-1968 election (Democrat-Republican)
Alabama........ 106-0
Arkansas..........98-2
Florida............77-42
Georgia.........169-26
Louisiana.......105-0
Mississippi....122-0
N. Carolina.....91-29
S. Carolina.....119-5
Tennessee.......49-49
Texas.............142-8
Virginia...........86-14
The Result: Meth Labs of Democracy
Governors are different. Blue-state Republicans and our favorite red-state Democrat.
Presidents and Parties
The Obama Effect
See Schier, p. 73:
Decline in split-ticket districts 1972-2012 (Schier 77)
And in 2016:
A post on behalf of Katherine
I'm sure everyone heard about Lamb's upset win in Pennsylvania but this is an interesting article on how his win affects party cohesion and what strategies Democrats should use in the midterm season.
Majority of Americans Believe 'Deep State' Manipulates US Policy
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/19/poll-deep-state-470282
Monday, March 19, 2018
"The biggest Republican megadonor you’ve never heard of"
Related to campaign finance, PACs, and singular megadonors shaping American politics: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/19/republican-megadonor-uihlein-470268
Sunday, March 18, 2018
Is it possible for the constitution to degrade?
The framers prescribed a framework to guard against tyrany and to protect personal liberty. When executed, the constitution should, as Madison argued, fight vice with vice. The author of the Atlantic article seems to argue that fighting vice with vice is deterioting the consitution. Is that even possible?
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/03/is-america-on-the-verge-of-a-constitutional-crisis/555860/
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/03/is-america-on-the-verge-of-a-constitutional-crisis/555860/
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham calls for Senate Judiciary hearing on McCabe firing
Full text of the relatively short article:
Sessions on Friday fired McCabe for not being forthcoming with investigators during an inspector general review.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) on Sunday said he believes the Senate Judiciary Committee should hold a hearing on the firing of former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe.
“I think we owe it to the average American to have a hearing in the Judiciary Committee where Attorney General [Jeff] Sessions comes forward with whatever documentation he has about the firing, and give Mr. McCabe the chance to defend himself,” Graham, a member of the panel, said on CNN’s “State of the Union."
“I believe when it comes to this issue we need as much transparency as possible to make sure it wasn’t politically motivated,” he added.
President Trump, who has personally attacked McCabe in the past, quickly praised that decision on Twitter, accusing McCabe of corrupt tactics and calling his firing a "great day for Democracy."
McCabe issued a statement after he was fired in which he argued that his ouster was driven by the Trump administration in an effort to undermine special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation.
Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), also a senior member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, said Saturday the panel should hold an oversight hearing on the Trump administration's attacks on the FBI and Justice Department.
Trump's attacks on the FBI and Justice Department, and his celebration of McCabe's firing, have prompted concern from some lawmakers that he may be readying to order Mueller's firing.
Graham reiterated on Sunday that he believes such action would be "the beginning of the end" of Trump's presidency.
However, it's not all anti-Trump. From a different source:
But Sen. Graham also commented that what he “saw at the FBI and Department of Justice regarding the dossier really bothered me. It was a paid political document, unverified, used inappropriately by the court, the two FBI agents investigating Clinton had a bias a bias against Trump in favor of Clinton, all that needs to be looked at.”
Sen. Graham called again for a second separate special counsel to review Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, two top level FBI agents involved romantically who were caught exchanging thousands of texts showing concrete bias against candidate Donald Trump in favor of Hillary Clinton. However, he says that none of that should lead to Robert Mueller’s firing.
“But when it comes to Mr. Mueller, he is following the evidence to where it takes him and I think it’s very important he is allowed to do his job without interference. And there are many Republicans who share my view,” Sen. Graham said.
Is this all just a smokescreen by Graham or does this signify the beginning of a real anti-Trump movement among establishment Republicans? Will Graham actually follow up on his calls for an investigation?
Friday, March 16, 2018
Primary Meddling
In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional elections as well as the presidential race.
Natasha Korecki and Daniel Strauss at Politico:
Natasha Korecki and Daniel Strauss at Politico:
The Democratic Governors Association is planning to launch an ad calling Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner's right-wing challenger "too conservative" for the state — an apparent move to boost state Rep. Jeanne Ives in her campaign's final days.
The ad, which is slated to begin airing on broadcast and cable TV in the state Friday, begins with a question: "When is a conservative leader too conservative for Illinois?"
But it quickly evolves into a list of Ives' conservative positions, presenting them in a way that could be appealing to some Republican primary voters.
...
The strategy is more reminiscent of the Missouri Senate primary in 2012, when Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill paid for ads calling then-Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.) — whom she viewed as her weakest possible opponent — "too conservative" for the state.
"Using the guidance of my campaign staff and consultants, we came up with the idea for a 'dog whistle' ad, a message that was pitched in such a way that it would be heard only by a certain group of people," McCaskill wrote later in her memoir. "I told my team we needed to put Akin’s uber-conservative bona fides in an ad — and then, using reverse psychology, tell voters not to vote for him. And we needed to run the hell out of that ad."
Spoilers
Daniel Marans at HuffPost:
Until Tuesday night, Drew Gray Miller, the Libertarian candidate for Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, was treated like an afterthought by Democrats, Republicans and most news outlets.
...
Then the election results came in. Miller had received 0.6 percent of the vote ― accounting for far more than the 0.2 percentage point lead Democrat Conor Lamb ended up holding over Republican Rick Saccone at the end of the night. (Lamb has declared victory, but Saccone is challenging the results.)
Suddenly Miller was the man of the hour, as pundits discovered that Miller’s candidacy might have cost Saccone the race.
When CNN finally flashed Miller’s photo on screen, his 20-person election watch party at Fat Head’s Saloon erupted in cheers. They high-fived one another and took selfies in front of the TV as the party took a rowdier turn.
At the Independent Record in Helena, Holly K. Michaels reports:
As the clock was running out for candidates to get their name on the ballot for what’s expected to be a hotly contested U.S. Senate race, Tim Adams — a man previously paid by the state Republican Party and who donated to Republican candidates as recently as 2016 — filed to run as a member of the Green Party.In 2012, an outside group, Montana Hunters and Anglers, backed Libertarian Senate candidate Dan Cox, apparently with the intent of siphoning votes from Republican Denny Rehberg. The trick worked: Cox's vote exceeded Tester's margin.
The Green Party was only approved to appear on Montana ballots Monday morning, just hours before the 5 p.m. filing deadline. Six people filed under the party's banner for state legislative and federal races, including Adams, the former Republican operative.
But some question whether Adams, who is running for the U.S. Senate, is really a Green Party member or got into the race to siphon votes away from Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat seeking re-election to a third term.
“Tim Adams is no Green Party candidate,” David Parker, an associate professor of political science at Montana State University, said Tuesday. “He has a long history of conservative activism. It’s curious that he has announced a candidacy and it’s curious that it happened on the last day.”
It is not all fun and games. In 2016, the Russians helped Green Party candidate Jill Stein in hopes f bringing down Clinton. Scott Shane and Mark Mazzetti at NYT:
The scope of the operation was sweeping. The Russians assumed their fake identities to communicate with campaign volunteers for Mr. Trump and grass-roots groups supporting his candidacy. They bought pro-Trump and anti-Clinton political advertisements on Facebook and other social media. They used an Instagram account to try to suppress turnout of minority voters and campaign for Ms. Stein, the Green Party candidate.
...
Weeks before the election, the Russians ratcheted up social media activity aimed at dampening support for Mrs. Clinton.
In mid-October, Woke Blacks, an Instagram account run by the Internet Research Agency, carried the message “hatred for Trump is misleading the people and forcing Blacks to vote Killary. We cannot resort to the lesser of two devils. Then we’d surely be better off without voting AT ALL.”
Then, just days before Americans went to the polls, another Instagram account controlled by the Russians — called Blacktivist — urged its followers to “choose peace” and vote for Ms. Stein, who was expected to siphon support from Mrs. Clinton’s campaign.
“Trust me,” the message read, “it’s not a wasted vote.”
Spring 2018 Research Assignment
Pick one:
- If you are taking part in the legislative simulation, analyze your experience. Consider your role's relationship to the party system. Even if you are playing someone who is not officially partisan, does the person's positions serve one party better than the other? In this light, how well did your positions and goals match those of your real-life counterpart? What methods did you use? In the circumstance that you dealt with, would your counterpart have done the same? How did the simulation both resemble and differ from the real world?
- Appraise President Trump's performance as leader of the Republican Party. What are his goals for the party? In light of political and institutional constraints, how well has he done?
- Analyze the use of "message votes" (Lee, ch. 6) in 2017. What challenges and opportunities faced each party in each chamber? Who used these votes most successfully? And how would you know that a message vote has succeeded?
- Pick any state legislature. Has it become more or less polarized over the past decade? Why?
- Write a postscript to chapter 6 of the Schier book. Explain how the politics of the federal judiciary (e.g., litigation and judicial selection) since Trump's election either confirms or disconfirms the analysis in the chapter.
- Write on another topic of your choice, subject to my approval.
- Essays should be typed (12-point), double-spaced, and no more than six pages long. I will not read past the sixth page. Please submit papers as Word documents, not pdfs.
- Cite your sources. Please use endnotes in the format of Chicago Manual of Style. Endnotes do not count against the page limit. Please do not use footnotes, which take up too much page space.
- Watch your spelling, grammar, diction, and punctuation. Errors will count against you. Return essays (in Word format) to the Sakai dropbox for this class by 11:59 PM, Friday, April 6. Papers will drop one gradepoint for one day’s lateness, a full letter grade after that.
Thursday, March 8, 2018
Campaign Finance II
Super PAC Money
- Philip Bump, " How Trump’s Campaign May Have Offloaded Spending on Polling to a Nonprofit," Washington Post, March 2, 2018.
- Michael J. Malbin, "Is a Wave Rolling in for House Democrats?" Campaign Finance Institute, February 28, 2018.
- Megan Janetsky, "`Right-to-work' Supreme Court Ruling Could Cripple Union Influence," OpenSecrets, March 1, 2018. (look ahead to pp. 142-143 of Defying the Odds)
Wednesday, March 7, 2018
What does Gary Cohn's resignation mean?
Gary Cohn's Resigning as Trump's Top Economic Adviser
Gary Cohn, President Trump's top economic adviser, announced his resignation in response to his opposition to President Trump's large tariffs on aluminum and steel imports. Will this give way to even more radical policies in the finance industry??
"It leaves Mr. Trump surrounded primarily by advisers with strong protectionist views who advocate the types of aggressive trade measures, like tariffs, that Mr. Trump campaigned on but that Mr. Cohn fought inside the White House. Mr. Cohn was viewed by Republican lawmakers as the steady hand who could prevent Mr. Trump from engaging in activities that could trigger a trade war."
Tuesday, March 6, 2018
Governor Miranda Hobbes?
New York Times: Cynthia Nixon Explores Possible Run Against Andrew Cuomo
"If a race between Ms. Nixon and Mr. Cuomo does materialize, it would instantly become one of the most intriguing Democratic primaries in the country, pitting a celebrity first-time candidate with an ability to command national media attention versus a two-term incumbent sitting atop $30 million and known for his aggressive political tactics."
I think this connects to what we discussed in class today- incumbents have a fundraising and monetary advantage in campaigns, but celebrities can easily gain free media. It will be interesting to see how this turns out.
Campaign Finance I
Total cost of the 2016 campaign (all federal race): about $6.5 billion.
That sounds like a lot of money ... until you realize that the total is less than half of what one corporation -- Procter and Gamble -- spent on advertising during the same period.
Milestones
FEC limits and special party rules
Outside spending: an overview
Following the Money
That sounds like a lot of money ... until you realize that the total is less than half of what one corporation -- Procter and Gamble -- spent on advertising during the same period.
Milestones
- FECA 1971 and 1974
- Buckley v. Valeo
- "Magic Words," Footnote 52 and Soft Money
- Colorado I and II: party coordinated and independent expenditures
- BCRA
- McConnell v. FEC: "We are under no illusion that BCRA will be the last congressional statement on the matter. Money, like water, will always find an outlet.
- Citizens United and SpeechNow
- McCutcheon v. FEC and "victory committees," joint fundraising committees (or JFCs) -- see Toner 192-194
- IRS approves 501(c)(4) status of Crossroads GPS -- just in time for the successor organization, One Nation
FEC limits and special party rules
Outside spending: an overview
Following the Money
- FEC Database
- California Data
- State campaign finance
- A Form 990
- The Churn
- An example of a dubious dark-money group -- and its more recent activity.
Monday, March 5, 2018
Brief Readings on Campaign Finance
- Ashley Balcerzak, "How Democrats Use Dark Money," Center for Public Integrity, February 20, 2018.
- Philip Bump, " How Trump’s Campaign May Have Offloaded Spending on Polling to a Nonprofit," Washington Post, March 2, 2018.
- Michael J. Malbin, "Is a Wave Rolling in for House Democrats?" Campaign Finance Institute, February 28, 2018.
- Megan Janetsky, "`Right-to-work' Supreme Court Ruling Could Cripple Union Influence," OpenSecrets, March 1, 2018. (look ahead to pp. 142-143 of Defying the Odds)
Thursday, March 1, 2018
Nominations II
Writing and Research
The dimensions do not have to be partisan:
Sanders campaign explains Democratic caucuses:
The Rubio campaign explains Republican caucuses (note some procedural differences between the parties)
- Writing Center
- Purpose statements "Avoid announcing the thesis statement as if it were a thesis statement. In other words, avoid using phrases such as "The purpose of this paper is . . . . " or "In this paper, I will attempt to . . . ." Such phrases betray this paper to be the work of an amateur. If necessary, write the thesis statement that way the first time; it might help you determine, in fact, that this is your thesis statement. But when you rewrite your paper, eliminate the bald assertion that this is your thesis statement and write the statement itself without that annoying, unnecessary preface."
- Turabian style: subsequent citations and multiple sources in a single note.
- Dangling modifiers
Alumni candidates
Top Two: A professional team v. a pickup teamThe advocacy coalition framework (ACF): The difference between the “long coalition” of a political party (see Bawn et al. 2006, 4) and the coalition of the ACF is that the larger coalition must, by necessity, have a wider variety of deep core beliefs; it must somehow address the true multidimensionality of politics. When we conceptualise individuals as participants in nested (and overlapping) policy coalitions, it becomes easier to imagine how severely competition for office within the same party might disrupt or rearrange coalitional opportunities as well within the type of policy-making coalition imagined in the ACF. The new requirements for getting elected to office can reshape the ACF-type coalition’s (in one domain, so conceptualised as one dimension) deep core beliefs because some camel got its nose under the party tent to win the election (in a multidimensional space).
The dimensions do not have to be partisan:
. Our model gives California’s AD47 in 2012 a 50% chance of having a copartisan election – and it did. Two Democrats entered and fought it out with two nearly irrelevant Republican spectators (Alvarez and Sinclair 2015). This district also featured a Black woman against a Latino man as Democratic copartisans in a Latino majority district. This race’s outcome suggests how that process might work, with each building on separate pathways to power, but the driver of the high probability here is just the extremity of the vote share difference between the Republican and Democratic parties. AD47 would have a copartisan election again in 2014 and again in 2016, with Cheryl Brown eventually falling to Eloise Reyes. One potential explanatory factor here is the district’s low 2016 Trump support relative to its 2012 Romney vote – an opposition lacking in rancorous spirit appears to reduce the chance of credible entry.Top two in 2018
Sanders campaign explains Democratic caucuses:
The Rubio campaign explains Republican caucuses (note some procedural differences between the parties)
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