Party in Government I

 For next time, Hershey, ch. 14. Guest speaker.

Very brief  (7-8 minute) oral presentations next week.  Let me know if you would prefer Tuesday or Thursday.  Otherwise, I will assign at random.

Do consult scholarly sources, including academic journals, university press books, and dissertations.

Why is RFK Jr. picking Nicole Shanahan as his running mate?  Hint:  Buckley v. Valeo.

Trump legal

EXTREMELY NARROW MARGIN IN THE HOUSE

Hill leadership and party networks

• House  --  Johnson and Jeffries
• Senate -- Schumer and McConnell

Edmund Burke:

 In all bodies, those who will lead, must also, in a considerable degree, follow. They must conform their propositions to the taste, talent, and disposition, of those whom they wish to conduct: therefore, if an assembly is viciously or feebly composed in a very great part of it, nothing but such a supreme degree of virtue as very rarely appears in the world, and for that reason cannot enter into calculation, will prevent the men of talent disseminated through it from becoming only the expert instruments of absurd projects!

CQ Party Unity scores 1956-2023  (Hershey 308)

States

• State Government Composition and Trifecta
• Legislatures grow more polarized  -- and the reasons
• Policy in the states -- the case of abortion

ALEC

Nominations and the General Election

 For Tuesday, read Hershey, ch. 13.  

In your weekly writeup, answer the questions about the videos below.

Iowa Caucuses

In your writeup, explain what this video says about the difference between a primary and a caucus.

Between 1992 and 2020 the Democratic candidate who won the Black vote in the primaries went on to win the nomination.  In 2020, Biden lost in Iowa and New Hampshire, and he looked like a goner.  But then he came back to life in the South Carolina primary, where Black voters make up a majority of the Democratic primary electorate.  Watch this town hall, starting at six minutes in. So explain: How did Biden connect with Black voters?

Conventions.  In recent decades, nomination campaigns have effectively ended before the convention.  But conventions can still matter, especially when speakers say things that alienate large blocs of votes.  In 1964, Republican nominee Barry Goldwater confronted charges that he was extremist.  In 1992, conservative Pat Buchanan, who had challenged Bush 41 for the nomination, said some things about Democrats.  Explain: How do you think these comments landed with the general electorate?

 

Here is a short video on how electoral college normally works:

But 2020 could have been different. After seeing the video below, explain how John Eastman tried to change the electoral outcome:

Nomination Process

 For Thursday, Hershey, ch. 11.  THURSDAY CLASS WILL BE ASCYNCHRONOUS.  IN THE VIDEO, I WILL POSE A FEW SHORT QUESTIONS THAT YOU WILL ANSWER IN YOUR WRITEUPS.

GIVE ME BRIEF DESCRIPTIONS OF YOUR ORAL PRESENTATIONS/RESEARCH PROJECTS.

GUEST SPEAKER A WEEK FROM THURSDAY.

The old system 

Great movie (start about 8:00)

 

A student and her impact on nomination politics!

Types of primaries

The blanket primary and California Democratic Party v. Jones. Writing for the majority, Justice Scalia said:

In concluding that the burden Proposition 198 imposes on petitioners' rights of association is not severe, the Ninth Circuit cited testimony that the prospect of malicious crossover voting, or raiding, is slight, and that even though the numbers of "benevolent" crossover voters were significant, they would be determinative in only a small number of races. But a single election in which the party nominee is selected by nonparty members could be enough to destroy the party. In the 1860 presidential election, if opponents of the fledgling Republican Party had been able to cause its nomination of a pro-slavery candidate in place of Abraham Lincoln, the coalition of intraparty factions forming behind him likely would have disintegrated, endangering the party's survival and thwarting its effort to fill the vacuum left by the dissolution of the Whigs. Ordinarily, however, being saddled with an unwanted, and possibly antithetical, nominee would not destroy the party but severely transform it. "[R]egulating the identity of the parties' leaders," we have said, "may ... color the parties' message and interfere with the parties' decisions as to the best means to promote that message."

Primary runoffs

Primary "meddling"  CA style:

Same tactic at work in TODAY's Ohio Senate primary.

Fusion: five states let candidates get the nomination of more than one political party: Connecticut, Mississippi, New York, Oregon, and Vermont.

In Timmons v. Twin Cities Area New Party, SCOTUS upheld anti-fusion laws.

Election law and procedure at the state level

California party organization endorsements Democrats and Republicans

In "nonpartisan" elections




The current process

What happens if you voted for a candidate who dropped out?  

Research Assignment 2024

  Pick one:

• If you are taking part in the legislative simulation, analyze your experience and explain your role's relationship to the party system. Even if you are representing an individual or group that is not officially partisan, do the positions of the individual or group serve one party better than the other?  If available, consider past testimony or legislative lobbying.   
• Write on another relevant topic of your choice. This week, please email me a brief description.  Let me know if you need suggestions.

Either way, consult scholarly sources and cite primary-source material (e.g., debate transcripts, congressional documents, survey results, vote data).

• Review my research & writing page.
• Review my research lecture.

On April 2 and 4, you will make brief (7-8 minutes) oral presentations on your research in progress.

The specifications:

• Essays should be typed (12-point), double-spaced, and no more than six pages long. I will not read past the sixth page. Please submit essays as Word documents, not pdfs.
• Cite your sources. Please use endnotes in the format of Chicago Manual of Style. Endnotes do not count against the page limit. Please do not use footnotes, which take up too much page space.
• Misrepresenting AI-generated content as your own work is plagiarism and will result in severe consequences.
• Please read my comments on your previous papers.  Repetition of errors makes me grouchy.
• Return essays to the Sakai dropbox for this class by 11:59 PM, Friday, April 12. I reserve the right to dock papers one gradepoint for one day’s lateness, a full letter grade after that.

PIE II

WATCH SOTU AT 6 PM PACIFIC.

 For a week from Tuesday, read Hershey, ch. 9 and 10 and pick a research topic.

The reciprocal influence of PIE, PO, PIG

Gallup on leaned party ID

Religion
The God Gap:

Evangelicalism as a religious tradition

Evangelical as a political label and not religious

Christian nationalism

Michael Flynn

The college gap:

Income, education, and the Brahminization of Democrats.

House districts

A shift among Hispanics?  Focus on Colombian Americans

Note:  only two percent of Hispanics use "Latinx" and 40 percent find it downright offensive.

Asian American votes

• Complexity of Asian American vote
• Pan-Asian identity?

Turnout and Voting Mechanics

• VAP/VEP and turnout
• Turnout demographics
• Early and Mail Voting

PIE Part I

 For Thursday, read Hershey ch. 8.

Apr 2, 4: Oral Presentations, 6-age research paper -- on any relevant topic of your choice -- due April 8.  

Party registration is not the same as party identification

These 19 states do not provide for party preferences in voter registration: Alabama, Georgia, Hawaii,  Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin.

Thirty-one states and DC do register by party.

Party change over time: another look at the cinematic map

Trends in party affiliation through 2014:

Recent trends (with leaners) --"The myth of the independent" (Hershey, p. 138).

Coming Apart

• Neighborhoods
• Race, ethnicity, education and party bases
• Aversive Partisanship
• Example: "If you are a zombie or a human rodent who wants a shadow-life of timid conformity, then put away this essay and go memorize the poetry of Amanda Gorman. Real men and women who love honor and beauty, keep reading."
• "Nearly a quarter of college students wouldn't be friends with someone who voted for the other presidential candidate — with Democrats far more likely to dismiss people than Republicans — according to new Generation Lab/Axios polling."
• Dating and marriage
• News sources and Factual beliefs
• Rationalization
• Authoritarianism and violence:

Religion
The God Gap: