Option 1National forces shape congressional elections. But why do similar candidates fare differently?
Choose two House candidates from the same party whose 2026 results present a puzzle. One might win while the other loses, or one might outperform the party’s usual showing while the other falls short. Do not use a race from your previous paper.
Before the election, choose a provisional pair in your weekly writeup, due this time on November 2. Include the note in your final appendix; no separate submission is necessary. You may change your pair afterward, but tell why.
After the election, establish the puzzle. Consider district partisanship, incumbency, candidate experience, and spending. Set a baseline for judging performance. A victory alone does not show that a candidate exceeded expectations.
Test two competing explanations for the difference. Find evidence that helps distinguish them. Do not assume a tactic worked because its candidate won.
Build your argument around three findings:
A campaign contrast: Compare the items you saved. Quote or describe a specific feature that bears on your explanation.
A local complication: Find a fact in local reporting or official records that a national account of the election might miss. Explain whether it changes your argument.
An inconvenient fact: Present the strongest evidence against your preferred explanation. Explain why it matters.
Use official returns, campaign materials, local reporting, and course readings. Cite exact pages, passages, or figures where appropriate. If returns remain incomplete, explain what you can and cannot conclude.
Return to your Canvas note. Identify what you got wrong, overlooked, or confirmed. Explain which source most changed your thinking.
Conclude by weighing national forces against individual campaigns. State what your comparison cannot establish.
Option 2
Whatever happens, the 2026 election will change Trump’s political circumstances. Will it change how he governs?
Choose one policy goal Trump emphasized before the election. Explain how the results affect his options: seek legislation, act through executive authority, negotiate, or delay. Describe your choice in your weekly writeup, this time due November 2.
Save two pre-election statements showing what Trump wanted and how he planned to get it. Then examine his statements and actions after the election, through November 18. Did he change his goal, his methods, or just his message? Consider the congressional results, party divisions, and limits on presidential power.
Identify his most plausible next moves. Explain its chief obstacle and weigh the strongest alternative. Tell what evidence would change your judgment. Distinguish actions from announcements and threats. Assess what Trump can do, not what you wish he would do.
Evidence: Use Trump’s statements before and after the election, relevant executive actions or bills, congressional responses, election results, and independent reporting. Include evidence that challenges your argument.
Option 3
Political parties have official leaders. On social media, other people may command more attention.
Choose one issue contested in the 2026 election. Compare how three accounts on the same platform address it: an official party account, a candidate or elected official, and an independent commentator aligned with that party. Do not choose Trump's accounts. Describe your choice in your weekly writeup, this time due November 2.
Collect twelve public posts—two from each account before the election and two afterward, through November 18. Use the same date ranges for all three accounts. Explain how you selected the posts; do not simply choose the most outrageous examples.
Who defines the issue? Who identifies enemies, sets priorities, or tells followers what the election means? Examine humor, images, emotional appeals, and calls to action. Identify one revealing disagreement or difference in emphasis. Then assess whether the election changed the accounts’ messages or their relationship to the party.
Use course readings and outside research to explain what your comparison reveals about party organization, polarization, or governing. Distinguish evidence of influence from evidence of attention: likes and shares alone do not show that an account changed votes or policy.
Conclude by answering: Does social media help party leaders direct their coalition, or give them a coalition they cannot control? Address the strongest evidence against your answer.
Evidence: Include a compact appendix with the twelve posts, dates, links, and brief descriptions. Trace one apparent instance of influence (e.g., another account adopting a phrase or responding to a demand) and consider whether a shared news event offers a better explanation. Choose publicly accessible accounts.
Option 4
Americans increasingly vote for state and local offices as they vote for president. Do state and local races still turn on state and local concerns?
Pick one state or local race on the November ballot, in any state: governor, state legislature, attorney general, secretary of state, state supreme court, mayor, county office, or a statewide ballot measure. Your home state is a good choice. Ballotpedia lists races by state. In your weekly writeup, this time due November 2, predict who will win and whether the race will turn on local issues or national ones. Use sources such as
- Candidate or campaign websites, ads, and social media posts
- Party endorsements and spending, state and national
- Campaign finance records (your state’s disclosure site or FollowTheMoney.org)
- Endorsements from interest groups and elected officials
- Local news coverage, through the college library’s databases
- Official results if available
Answer these questions:- What did each side say the race was about?
- Where did the money come from: in state or out of state, parties or groups?
- Did the national party help, ignore, or embarrass its candidate?
- Did the results follow the national tide, or depart from it? Compare the race to statewide or national results.
- If the race is undecided on November 18, say so and reason from the count so far.
- Was your November 1 prediction right? Why or why not?
Requirements
- Essays should be double-spaced, 12-point type, and no more than six pages long. I will not read past the sixth page.
- Essays should be in Word document format. Do not submit PDFs.
- Cite all outside sources with endnotes (not footnotes) in Chicago/Turabian style. Endnote pages do not count against the page limit.
- Misrepresenting AI-generated content as your own work is plagiarism. It could result in a referral to the Academic Standards Committee.
- Watch your spelling, grammar, diction, and punctuation. Errors will count against you. Read Strunk & White and watch my writing lecture before writing this paper.
- Turn in essays to Canvas by 11:59 PM, Friday, November 20. (If you have trouble with Canvas, simply email it to me as a Word file.) I reserve the right to dock essays a grade point for one day’s lateness, a full letter grade after that.
Option 5. If the previous four do not inspire you, devise your own topic, subject to my approval. Please do so before Election Day.
