Sunday, October 4, 2026

PIE I

For Wed, read Hershey ch. 8.

Paper assignment

What is party identification?

Party registration is not the same as party identification

These 19 states do not provide for party preferences in voter registration: Alabama, Georgia, Hawaii,  Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin.

Thirty-one states and DC do register by party.

Party change over time: another look at the cinematic map

Trends in party affiliation through 2014


Recent trends (with leaners) --"The myth of the independent" (Hershey, pp. 143-145).



Coming Apart






The political preferences of U.S. religious groups
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Second Paper, Fall 2026

 Pick One:

1.  Prediction!

Name one House race that Cook has rated toss-up or "lean" as of this week. Predict the winner and the margin. Write a forecast memo for that race. Build your case on Carson & Jacobson's fundamentals (ch. 1-2): district partisanship, any changes from mid-decade redistricting, incumbency, candidate quality, and money. Pull each candidate's latest FEC filing. Compare your call with Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and one prediction market. Explain any disagreement.

Find one real piece of campaign material: a mailer, an ad, an email, socal media post, or a text. Analyze what it reveals about campaign strategy.  Include a photo or screenshot as an appendix.  (If you have trouble, simply email it to me.)

After Nov. 3, we tally the calls. The best forecaster wins the Anti-Polymarket Prize.  (No cash, but you can mention it on your resume or in an interview.) Accuracy does not affect your grade.  


2. "Draft Day 2028" (See Hershey ch. 9–11)

I have randomly assigned each of you a potential 2028 presidential candidate.  (See list below.)  You may swap -- with email notification to me -- but no two students may write on the same person.

Write a strategy memo to your candidate on how to win the party nomination (not the general election).  Carefully consider the primary calendar and delegate math under your party's rules. Assess your candidate's fundraising ability and standing in the invisible primary. Recommend one early state in which your candidate should concentrate resources and one in which the candidate should limit investment. Explain the tradeoff.

Use at least two pieces of hard evidence dated after Oct. 1, 2026, such as leadership PAC filings or early-state trips reported in local news.

Examples of strategy memos:


For either option:

  • Your paper should tell how your research confirmed or disconfirmed your initial expectations. Refer to one specific claim from your writeup. Identify the source that most challenged that claim and explain how your final argument change, or why you retained the claim despite that evidence.
  • Identify the strongest piece of evidence against your recommendation or prediction. Explain why it does not change your conclusion, or how it caused you to revise it. Describe one specific development that would make you change your mind.
  • On October 21, you will make a one-minute pitch for your prediction or strategy. Answer questions, and your paper should include a response to the question(s) you received.
Specs:
  • Essays should be double-spaced, 12-point type, and no more than four pages long. I will not read past the fourth page.
  • Essays should be in Word document format. Do not submit PDFs or Google Docs.
  • Cite all outside sources with endnotes (not footnotes) in Chicago/Turabian style. Endnote pages do not count against the page limit.
  • Misrepresenting AI-generated content as your own work is plagiarism. It could result in a referral to the Academic Standards Committee. 
  • Watch your spelling, grammar, diction, and punctuation. Errors will count against you. Read Strunk & White and watch my writing lecture before writing this paper.
  • Turn in essays to Canvas by 11:59 PM, Friday, October 23. (If you have trouble with Canvas, simply email it to me as a Word file.) I reserve the right to dock essays a grade point for one day’s lateness, a full letter grade after that.
  1. Josh Hawley (R), U.S. senator, Missouri  PETER C.
  2. Gavin Newsom (D), governor of California NICK C.
  3. Marco Rubio (R), secretary of state LILY
  4. Andy Beshear (D), governor of Kentucky KURT
  5. Ron DeSantis (R), governor of Florida JASPER
  6. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D), U.S. representative, New York DEAN
  7. Glenn Youngkin (R), former governor of Virginia ISAIAH
  8. Pete Buttigieg (D), former secretary of transportation SOHANI
  9. JD Vance (R), vice president CHARLIE
  10. Gretchen Whitmer (D), governor of Michigan KEITH
  11. Ted Cruz (R), U.S. senator, Texas CHANTAL
  12. Josh Shapiro (D), governor of Pennsylvania OMAR
  13. Ruben Gallego (D), U.S. senator, Arizona EMILY
  14. Brian Kemp (R), governor of Georgia NICK S.
  15. JB Pritzker (D), governor of Illinois THEA


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Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Outside Money

Oppo people must be careful.

For next time, Hershey, ch 6-7.

Focus question:  what most surprised you this week about campaign finance?  Be specific.  Do not just say, "there are a lot of loopholes."

Types of advocacy groups 

PACs and Super PACs (Hershey 297-302)

Colbert and Trevor Potter

Dark Money 

What kind of spending do dark money groups have to disclose?



...and Democrats


How new Democratic nonprofits funnel political donations to super PACs with anonymity

Note: F.E.C. and some tax filings are through the end of 2024. Some tax filings are through mid-2024.

Sources: F.E.C. and most recent available tax filings.

Ashley Cai/The New York Times

 Non-Coordination Coordination 



(Same with Mitch)

The broader party network:  think tanks, partisan media, and interlocking directorates

Dark Money and January 6 (and CPAC)

RAGA

Foreign money is illegal, but... Russia plays, too.

The IRA [Internet Research Agency, Russian troll farm in St. Petersberg] organized and promoted political rallies inside the United States while posing as U.S. grassroots activists. First, the IRA used one of its preexisting social media personas (Facebook groups and Twitter accounts, for example) to announce and promote the event. The
IRA then sent a large number of direct messages to followers of its social media account asking them to attend the event. From those who responded with interest in attending, the IRA then sought a U.S. person to serve as the event's coordinator. In most cases, the IRA account operator would tell the U.S. person that they personally could not attend the event due to some preexisting conflict or because they were somewhere else in the United States. The IRA then further promoted the event by contacting U.S. media about the event and directing them to speak with the coordinator. After the event, the IRA posted videos and photographs of the event to the IRA's social media accounts.


The Office identified dozens of U.S. rallies organized by the IRA. The earliest evidence of a rally was a "confederate rally" in November 2015. ... From June 2016 until the end of the presidential campaign, almost all of the U.S. rallies organized by the IRA focused on the U.S. election, often promoting the Trump Campaign and opposing the Clinton Campaign. Pro-Trump rallies included three in New York; a series of pro-Trump rallies in Florida in August 2016; and a series of pro-Trump rallies in October 2016 in Pennsylvania. The Florida rallies drew the attention of the Trump Campaign, which posted about the Miami rally on candidate Trump's Facebook account (as discussed below).




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