Thursday, April 30, 2020

Appraisals and Proposals II

Examples of multiparty systems:  CanadaBritainIsrael

Causes of the two-party system:

Types of Third-Party Movements
Reasons for Third Party Bursts
  • Major party deterioration and issue responsiveness
  • Economic decline
  • Unacceptable major party candidates
Reasons for the brevity of the bursts
  • Major parties coopt the third party agenda: Wilson coopts TR on Progressive reform, FDR coopts Socialists on social programs, Nixon coopts G. Wallace on law & order, Clinton coopts Perot on deficit control.
  • Perception of spoiler effect:  Nader in 2000, Stein in 2016
SCOTUS

Electoral College

Post-Primary Politics

Stephen Ohlemacher and Bill Barrow at  Associated Press
Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden has agreed to let former primary rival Bernie Sanders keep hundreds of delegates he would otherwise forfeit by dropping out of the presidential race in a deal designed to avoid the bitter feelings that marred the party in 2016 and helped lead to Hillary Clinton's defeat.
Under party rules, Sanders should lose about a third of the delegates he’s won in primaries and caucuses as the process moves ahead and states select the people who will attend the Democratic National Convention. The rules say those delegates should be Biden supporters, as he is the only candidate still actively seeking the party’s nomination.

However, in a memo obtained by The Associated Press, the Biden campaign says it will work with Sanders and state parties to fill those positions with Sanders supporters. The joint memo from the Biden and Sanders campaigns was being sent to state Democratic parties on Thursday.

“We must defeat Donald Trump this fall, and we believe that this agreement will help bring the party together to get Trump out of the White House and not only rebuild America, but transform it,” the two campaigns said in a joint statement.

In some ways, the delegate count is a moot point. While Biden has yet to formally win the 1,991 delegates needed to claim the Democratic nomination on the first ballot at the convention, he is the Democrats' presumptive nominee. All of his rivals — including Sanders — have endorsed him after ending their own campaigns.

The deal, however, is a major step in the two camps avoiding the acrimony between the Democratic establishment and progressive insurgents that marked Sanders' 2016 primary fight with Clinton, the eventual nominee. In that campaign, Clinton and Sanders battled for delegates until the end of the primary calendar and then jousted over the party platform and rules well into the summer.
Why is Biden so eager to make concessions?  Rebecca Morin at USA Today:
Bernie Sanders may have endorsed Joe Biden, but almost a quarter of the Vermont senator’s supporters aren’t jumping on board just yet, according to a new poll.
Nearly 1 in 4 Sanders supporters (22%) said they would vote for a third party candidate, vote for President Donald Trump, not vote in November or were undecided about who to vote for, according to a USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll. When broken down, 2% said they would vote for Trump, 8% said they would vote for a third party candidate, 2% said they would skip voting and 8% are still undecided.
However, the vast majority of Sanders supporters (77%) said they will vote for Biden in the general election in November.

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Amash is In ... the Libertarian Nomination Race

With perfect timing for our discussion of third parties tomorrow, Justin Amash has entered the race for the Libertarian presidential nomination.  Matt Welch at Reason:
More than three years after first seriously contemplating it, one year after coming out in favor of impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump, nine months after leaving the Republican Party, two months after hitting pause on his congressional re-election campaign, and just 22 days before the Libertarian Party (L.P.) is scheduled to select its own nominee, Rep. Justin Amash of Michigan, the most libertarian member of Congress, has decided to form an exploratory committee about running for president.
"Americans are ready for practical approaches based in humility and trust of the people," the congressman tweeted Tuesday night. "We're ready for a presidency that will restore respect for our Constitution and bring people together."
The 40-year-old son of Middle Eastern immigrants (mom is from Syria, dad a Palestinian refugee) now seeks to become the limited-government standard-bearer against septuagenarian big-government competitors Donald Trump and Joe Biden. He would certainly be the most high-profile presidential candidate, and the first to concurrently hold elected office, in the Libertarian Party's half-century of existence.

Amash, an F.A. Hayek–quoting five-term incumbent from Grand Rapids and former co-founding member of the House Freedom Caucus, became a sustaining member of the L.P. some time over the past two weeks, thus meeting the party's minimum nominating requirements. He now has three weeks—or perhaps more, should the Libertarian National Committee at its May 2 meeting decide to reschedule a national convention whose physical and legal status is in coronavirus limbo and whose Austin hotel abruptly canceled the event on Sunday—to convince wary delegates for a fourth consecutive election to select a candidate who has won office only as a Republican.
Also at Reason, Brian Doherty quotes a CMC alum:
Adam Kokesh, a "voluntaryist" candidate who wants to dissolve the federal government, was not reachable for comment as of posting time, but he did speak to the Amash question in a campaign email last May.

He praised Amash, noting that the congressman "is screwed for having integrity within a party [Republicans, at that time] that amplifies lies on a daily basis" and said that "Now here's the question for us Libertarians…do we welcome Justin Amash and recruit him to seek our nomination? Without hesitation, I say, 'Hell yes!!!'"
As Kokesh explained, "I can say with complete confidence that bringing Justin Amash into the fold would be great for the party," granting that "Amash is aligned with our shared principles. He is the most Libertarian member of Congress. Trained in Austrian Economics, his voting record supports his integrity on our issues."

Despite those positives for Amash, it's not that Kokesh, who wants the nod himself, thinks the L.P.'s delegates should give Amash the prize. The reason Kokesh said he welcomed Amash last May was that "if he throws his hat in the ring, the media attention brought to the LP will be MASSIVE" and it would be delicious, too, in an imagined future convention:
As the cameras roll, and the Trump-hating journalists wait with bated breath for our state chairs to count the ballots…they will be forced to announce the 2020 LP Presidential Candidate. And with hard work and your support, Fox News, CNN, MSNBC, the Washington Post, New York Times and others will run with the headline, "Libertarians Refuse to be Pawns, Nominate Adam Kokesh as Presidential Nominee."
(The selection process for the presidential nomination may not happen where cameras can roll, as a physical convention may be ruined by COVID-19, but Kokesh could not have guessed this last May. The party will be deciding exactly how they will choose their candidate at a May 2 virtual meeting of the Libertarian National Committee.)

Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Appraisals and Proposals I


Responsible Party Government -- Back to the Future!

"A Temporarily Responsible Party" (Hershey 353)

A few years after the Contract, Newt reflected:
We had not only failed to take into account the ability of the Senate to delay us and obstruct us, but we had much too cavalierly underrated the power of the President, even a President who had lost his legislative majority and was in a certain amount of trouble for other reasons. I am speaking of the power of the veto. Even if you pass something through both the House and the Senate, there is that presidential pen. How could we have forgotten that?

Issue ambivalence:


Paradox:  are more democratic parties bad for democracy?:

Kamarck


  • What is peer review?
  • "The purpose of this step would be to let the primary voters know what people in government think of the capabilities of these candidates prior to the beginning of the nomination contests."  Would the confidence/no-confidence votes persuade voters? 
Proportional Representation?

Lee (203): "Bipartisanship is particularly problematic for a party seeking to win a larger share of institutional power

What about proportional representation?  Drutman:
Political scientist Frances Lee has looked closely at the devastating consequences of this intense national partisan competition, most recently in her masterful book, Insecure Majorities. The conclusion of her research is dispiriting: The more closely contested the control of institutions, the more politics devolves into zero-sum partisanship with all its dysfunctional consequences. Every vote becomes a party-line vote. Party leaders raise the stakes of every potential dispute to draw clear contrasts for activists, donors, and voters. Each party denies the other any small victory that might be useful in the next election, and looks primarily to embarrass the other side rather than to collaborate. The permanent campaign takes over.
Examples of multiparty systems:  CanadaBritainIsrael

Causes of the two-party system:

Types of Third-Party Movements
Reasons for Third Party Bursts
  • Major party deterioration and issue responsiveness
  • Economic decline
  • Unacceptable major party candidates







Trump Was Not Happy About the NRSC Memo

I could not have engineered a story that better illustrates the clash of institutional perspectives within a party.

Alex Isenstadt at Politico:
Earlier this month, the Senate Republican campaign arm circulated a memo with shocking advice to GOP candidates on responding to coronavirus: “Don’t defend Trump, other than the China Travel Ban — attack China.”
The Trump campaign was furious.

On Monday — just days after POLITICO first reported the existence of the memo — Trump political adviser Justin Clark told NRSC executive director Kevin McLaughlin that any Republican candidate who followed the memo’s advice shouldn’t expect the active support of the reelection campaign and risked losing the support of Republican voters.

McLaughlin responded by saying he agreed with the Trump campaign’s position and, according to two people familiar with the conversation, clarified that the committee wasn’t advising candidates to not defend Trump over his response.
The episode illustrates how the Trump political apparatus demands — and receives — fealty from fellow Republicans and moves aggressively to tamp down on any perceived dissent within the GOP. The president maintains an iron grip on his party, even as his poll numbers sag and he confronts fierce criticism from Democrats over his response to the coronavirus pandemic.
This episode recalls something similar in 1990.  George H.W. Bush acceded to a tax increase.  NRCC's Ed Rollins, sought to limit the damage to House GOP candidates and told them that they should not hesitate to break with Bush on the issue.  Bush lashed out at Rollins.  As you may recall, I've told the story of my own tangential involvement.  A friend down the hall drafted the Rollins NRCC memo, while I drafted Lee Atwater's RNC letter asking House Republicans to support the tax increase.

Monday, April 27, 2020

The Party Politics of Dating

Anna Brown at Pew:
At a time when political polarization and antipathy in the United States remains at modern historic highs, many single people looking for a relationship wouldn’t want to date someone who voted for the candidate of the opposing party in the 2016 presidential election, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey. Democrats are especially wary of dating a Trump voter.
Among Democrats and those who lean toward the Democratic Party who are single but looking for a relationship, about seven-in-ten (71%) say they probably or definitely would not consider being in a committed relationship with someone who voted for Donald Trump. In fact, 45% say they definitely would not consider seriously dating a Trump voter.
Meanwhile, roughly half of single-and-looking Republicans and Republican leaners (47%) say they probably or definitely wouldn’t be in a relationship with someone who voted for Hillary Clinton, including 19% who say they definitely would not consider it. There is also some resistance toward dating someone who is a member of the opposite party – but less so than there is about dating a person who voted for the other party’s 2016 presidential candidate. Roughly four-in-ten single-and-looking Democrats (43%) say they would not consider being in a relationship with a Republican. About a quarter of Republicans who are looking for a relationship (24%) say they probably or definitely would not seriously date a Democrat.

Sunday, April 26, 2020

The NRSC Memo

Alex Isenstadt at Politico:
The National Republican Senatorial Committee has sent campaigns a detailed, 57-page memo authored by a top Republican strategist advising GOP candidates to address the coronavirus crisis by aggressively attacking China.
The memo includes advice on everything from how to tie Democratic candidates to the Chinese government to how to deal with accusations of racism. It stresses three main lines of assault: That China caused the virus “by covering it up,” that Democrats are “soft on China,” and that Republicans will “push for sanctions on China for its role in spreading this pandemic.”

“Coronavirus was a Chinese hit-and-run followed by a cover-up that cost thousands of lives,” the April 17 memo states.

The document urges candidates to stay relentlessly on message against the country when responding to any questions about the virus. When asked whether the spread of the coronavirus is Trump’s fault, candidates are advised to respond by pivoting to China.
“Don’t defend Trump, other than the China Travel Ban — attack China,” the memo states.

The memo provides a clear, real-time example of how consultants provide talking points and anticipate questions:
Answers To Likely Arguments:
Q: Isn’t this Trump’s fault?
Note - don’t defend Trump, other than the China Travel Ban -- attack China
● This is China’s fault. The virus came from China and China covered it up. Because China lied about the extent of the virus, our public health officials acted late.
● I wish that everyone acted earlier -- that includes our elected officials, the World Health Organization, and the CDC.
● I’m glad that President Trump acted early to ban travel to China -- that’s something my
Democratic opponent did not support and that Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi criticized as
xenophobic and racist.
.
Q: Aren’t you being racist by blaming China and causing racist attacks against Chinese Americans?
● No one is blaming Chinese Americans. This is the fault of the Chinese Communist Party for covering up the virus and lying about it’s danger. This caused the pandemic and they should be held accountable.
● And no one has suffered more from the murderous Communist Chinese Party dictatorship than the people of China. We stand with them against their corrupt government that caused this pandemic.

Saturday, April 25, 2020

Parties and Presidential Candidates

Reid J. Epstein and Shane Goldmacher at NYT:
Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s presidential campaign and the Democratic National Committee have agreed to a joint fund-raising accord and installed the Biden campaign’s choice as the D.N.C.’s chief executive, the latest signs that the party’s presumptive presidential nominee has consolidated control over its broader functions.

The new agreement, which party officials said would be made formal on Friday, will allow the former vice president to raise $360,600 from individual donors, with $5,600 going to the Biden campaign and the rest earmarked for the party committee.

At the request of the Biden campaign, Mary Beth Cahill, a D.N.C. senior adviser who briefly served as its interim chief executive in 2018, will take over from Seema Nanda. Ms. Cahill, a longtime operative for the party, served as campaign manager for John Kerry’s 2004 presidential campaign. Mr. Kerry is a longtime friend of and 2020 campaign surrogate for Mr. Biden. Ms. Nanda will leave the D.N.C.

The moves come as the Biden campaign exercises greater influence on the national committee, an effort that typically gets underway after a presidential nomination is assured. In the past, that has involved sending a team of aides to the party’s headquarters on South Capitol Street, but the coronavirus restrictions mean the Biden team will take over a party working from home.
Politico Morning Score:
THE REELECT — Different arms of Trumpworld are taking diverging paths forward. "The Republican National Committee has launched a massive effort to reach some 20 million swing voters to make an affirmative case for his performance. But Trump campaign officials are taking a different approach: Rather than devoting resources to boost Trump's numbers, which haven't moved materially since he was elected, they want to go scorched earth against Joe Biden," POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt wrote . "The deliberations illustrate how the highest ranks of the Republican Party are grappling with the uncertainty the coronavirus crisis has injected into the race — and how best to prepare for a general election that looks nothing like what they'd been anticipating."
Some advisers argue "there's little public appetite in a slash-and-burn campaign at a time when Americans are suffering. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a Trump adviser and ally, said the president should wait until the late August convention to begin a full-fledged campaign and instead focus on dealing with the crisis. Dealing with it effectively, he contended, would virtually cement Trump's reelection. ... Yet campaign officials see reason to begin nuking Biden, especially as the former vice president ramps up his attacks. Liberal outside groups have spent millions of dollars on TV ads in battleground states going after Trump."

Friday, April 24, 2020

Left, Right, Vaccines, Shutdowns

The anti-vaccine movement has never been limited to one political party. Left-leaning vaccine critics — such as Children’s Health Defense, led by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — include environmentalists who are suspicious of chemical pollutants, corporations and “Big Pharma.” The Kennedy group’s website attacks Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, for rushing “risky and uncertain coronavirus vaccines” into development as part of a “sweetheart deal” for drug companies.
On the other side of the political spectrum, many anti-vaccine conservatives oppose state immunization requirements because they distrust “big government.”
  • A group called Texans for Vaccine Choice has called on the governor to promise that no one will be forced to get a coronavirus vaccine in order to go to work or school.
  • Posts on the Facebook page of Californians for Health Choice, which also opposed California’s vaccine laws, question stay-at-home orders and accuse government officials of refusing to admit the orders are a mistake.
  • In a video on the Freedom Angels’ Facebook page, its founders describe stay-at-home orders as an abuse of government authority, and the closure of California gun shops as an assault on the Second Amendment. The group notes that guns could be essential for protection from rioters and looters looking to steal food during the pandemic.
In many ways, the conservative arm of the anti-vaccine movement is a natural ally for those leading “reopen America” rallies, said Dr. David Gorski, an oncologist and managing editor of the Science-Based Medicine site. Both harbor suspicions about government authority.

Thursday, April 23, 2020

States, Public Policy, Polarization

The death of expertise:




LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT

Max Fine notes an article on current disputes, Myah Ward at Politico:
...Georgia's Republican governor, Brian Kemp, has been even bolder in his moves to reopen the state's businesses shuttered by the coronavirus pandemic. Bowling alleys, gyms, tattoo parlors and hair and nail salons will be allowed to reopen beginning Friday, as long as business owners adhere to social-distancing and hygiene guidelines. Starting next week, movie theaters can reopen and restaurants will be allowed to return to limited dine-in service.
... 
Democratic mayors in the state have condemned the governor’s orders. Mayor Kelly Girtz of Athens-Clarke County, Ga., told CNN Tuesday that he was urging his constituents not to follow the governor’s advice for reopening.
“I’m exhorting everybody in this community to continue to shelter in place. Do not reopen at this point. It’s not the time to do it,” Girtz said. “It’s like telling the quarterback, ‘We don’t have a helmet for you, we don’t have pads, but get out there on the field and just try not to get sacked.”
 Governors and Mayors -- cities are highly dependent on state governments

Blueberries in tomato soup: red states have blue cities, such as Austin, Texas

But even those from the same party often hate each other.

Also, the incentives of the national party diverge from those of state officials, even those of the same party.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) drew flak Thursday from governors in both parties after suggesting that states hit hard by the coronavirus outbreak should be allowed to seek bankruptcy protections rather than be given a federal bailout.
McConnell’s comments, made during a radio interview on Wednesday, came amid a renewed push from states for help from Washington to cover lost tax revenue that has been among the dire consequences of the ongoing pandemic.
“This is really one of the dumb ideas of all time,” New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo (D) said during a briefing in Albany in which he warned that bankruptcy declarations by multiple states would lead to “a collapse of this national economy.”
Republicans who panned the idea included Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R), chairman of the bipartisan National Governors Association, which has asked McConnell for $500 billion to help states deal with lost revenue.
And state budgets are collapsing -- causing pressure both on GOP tax-cut proposals and Democratic spending proposals. 

THE LIMITED IMPACT OF GOP PROPOSALS. ON ABORTION, MANY PRO-LIFE POLS REALLY ARE RELUCTANT TO PULL THE TRIGGER.

The future:  demographics tend to favor the Democrats


State's Rights Arguments- a Tool for Democrats and Republicans alike

Political parties claim that their relevant policies are backed by either a Hamiltonian (strong federal control, weaker states- typically democratic) or Jeffersonian (state empowerment, weaker federal government- typically republican) ideology, but their larger policy goals dictate the political means to achieve them, not the other way around. For example, on the issue of marriage equality, Democrats adopted a Jeffersonian perspective through a States' rights argument while it was politically effective for them to do so.

In a statement on a presidential memorandum, President Obama wrote, “My Administration is not authorized by existing Federal law to provide same-sex couples with the full range of benefits enjoyed by heterosexual married couples…. [The Defense against Marriage Act is] discriminatory, it interferes with States' rights, and it's time we overturned it." To many this was surprising, as Republicans are typically associated with this type of argument.


Republicans at the time opted to let the issue run its course in the Supreme Court. They believed that conservative agenda would prevail, and thus chose not to present an argument on the basis of States' rights. Ultimately, once they were unsuccessful, Republican leaders immediately began discussing the issue in terms of States' Rights. After the ruling, John Boehner, the Republican Speaker of the House at the time, said, "I am... disappointed that the Supreme Court disregarded the democratically-enacted will of millions of Americans by forcing states to redefine the institution of marriage.”


Despite the political messaging around States' Rights, the case itself, Obergefell v. Hodges, has no direct mention of States’ rights in the majority opinion nor in the dissents, though it is alluded to by Justice Alito and Chief Justice Roberts. This indicates that the States’ rights argument was significantly weaker than the direct consideration of whether or not the constitution protects same sex marriage. Democrats, under President Obama’s leadership, constructed that narrative as a form of political messaging rather than pushing it as a legal argument, which is why it is not addressed in the decision or dissent. Opposed to the Republican outcry, Democrats made no mention of States’ rights after the ruling came down from the bench. Since the Democrats were successful in achieving their policy goal, they no longer needed to use States' rights as a means to achieve an end. Republicans, on the other hand, found the Supreme Court’s response suddenly lacking consideration of States’ rights, and adopted it as the same means as President Obama to the opposite end.

While both political parties use States’ rights arguments to gain public support and occasionally battle in the courts, the utilization of such arguments have strayed significantly from Jefferson and Hamilton’s original ideological separation. Through war, the courts, and the political party system, Hamilton ultimately won, and there is little to be done to move back to a Jeffersonian perspective on federal control. Democrats and Republicans only invoke those arguments now to achieve tangential policy goals and to message their respective bases.

Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Anti-Shutdown and Antivax Movements in the States

Kenneth P. Vogel, Jim Rutenberg and Lisa Lerer at NYT:
An informal coalition of influential conservative leaders and groups, some with close connections to the White House, has been quietly working to nurture protests and apply political and legal pressure to overturn state and local orders intended to stop the spread of the coronavirus.

The groups have tapped their networks to drive up turnout at recent rallies in state capitals, dispatched their lawyers to file lawsuits, and paid for polling and research to undercut the arguments behind restrictions that have closed businesses and limited the movement of most Americans.

Among those fighting the orders are FreedomWorks and Tea Party Patriots, which played pivotal roles in the beginning of Tea Party protests starting more than a decade ago. Also involved are a law firm led partly by former Trump White House officials, a network of state-based conservative policy groups, and an ad hoc coalition of conservative leaders known as Save Our Country that has advised the White House on strategies for a tiered reopening of the economy.

The effort picked up some influential support on Tuesday, when Attorney General William P. Barr expressed concerns about state-level restrictions potentially infringing on constitutional rights, and suggested that, if that occurred, the Justice Department might weigh in, including by supporting legal challenges by others. Separately, in Wisconsin, Republicans in the state legislature sued to block the Democratic governor’s order extending stay-at-home rules through May 26.
...
Support for the protests features more direct ties to the White House than simply support for Mr. Trump. The administration recently formed an advisory group for reopening the economy that included Stephen Moore, the conservative economics commentator. Mr. Moore had been coordinating with FreedomWorks, the Tea Party Patriots and the American Legislative Exchange Council in a coalition called “Save Our Country,” which was formed to push for a quicker easing of restrictions.

At my autism blog, I have a post about the overlap between the anti-shutdown movement and the antivaccine movement. 

A year ago,  Arthur Allen reported at Politico that Republican state legislators are taking up the antivaccine cause:
The GOP tilt is more pronounced among state lawmakers than among federal ones; many prominent Republicans in Congress including most of the 16 GOP doctors have endorsed vaccines. The most visible and voluble exception is Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), an ophthalmologist who says his own kids were vaccinated but the decision should be left to the parents, not the government.
But in states where legislators have advanced serious efforts to tighten restrictions, such as Maine, Washington, Colorado and Oregon, nearly all of the opponents are Republicans who’ve taken a medical freedom stance.
“The more they dig into it being about freedom, the more susceptible they become to the theories,” said Dave Gorski, a Michigan physician who has tracked the anti-vaccine movement for two decades. “Appeals to freedom are like the gateway drug to pseudoscience.”
At the extremes are legislators like Jonathan Stickland, a pro-National Rifle Association, Christian conservative in the Texas Assembly, who has described vaccines as “sorcery” while personally attacking Baylor University scientist Peter Hotez, who has a daughter with autism and works on vaccines for neglected tropical diseases. “Parental rights mean more to us than your self-enriching 'science,'" Stickland tweeted at Hotez earlier this month.
That same day, the Oregon Republican Party’s official Twitter account posted that Oregon Democrats were “ramming forced injections down every Oregon parent's throat.”
Other Republican state officials have blamed Central American immigrants for disease outbreaks, echoing a talking point of Fox commentator Lou Dobbs. In fact, experts say, children in many of those countries are more thoroughly vaccinated than their U.S. counterparts against diseases like whooping cough and measles.

Mariel Garza at LAT:
[I]t was dismaying to see state Senate Minority Leader Sen. Shannon Grove of Bakersfield and other Republican legislators side with the opponents on the bills to close a loophole that was allowing people to get around the state’s vaccination laws.
...
If this is a ploy to turn the so-called “anti-vaxxers” into GOP voters, they may not have great luck. Those opposed to mandatory vaccines don’t split along party lines. In fact, some of the places that have seen the lowest vaccination rates are solidly liberal communities, like Marin County and Santa Cruz.

Tuesday, April 21, 2020

State Governments: Innovation and Stickiness

Maddy asked about state government innovation: 11_19_INFOGRAPHIC_innovation-index

A different ranking from a pro-business perspective.


"Sticky" liberal policymaking

The workforce:





DANNY: Why the differences?

Character of employment
Federal mandates on state and local government
Power of unions (in CA, NY and some other big states)

What states and localities spend money on:



Medicaid:  the program Republicans hate to love.


Education:

Charter schools are public schools.

People are generally happy with their own local schools

The Lieutenant Governor of Texas

In some states (e.g., California), the lieutenant governor is little more than a cipher.  In Texas, however, the office holds great power. Among other things, its occupant gets to appoint committee chairs in the State senate.

Monday, April 20, 2020

COVID-19 & Elections

COVID-19 has (fairly obviously) impacted elections, as in-person voting could spread the disease. 19 states have postponed their upcoming primary elections due to COVID-19, almost all through executive order. This has proved relatively uncontroversial except for in Ohio and Wisconsin, where decisions to delay their respective elections were fought out in court.

First, in Ohio, Governor DeWine (R) did not oppose holding their March 17 election until the day prior, when he convinced two Ohio residents to file a lawsuit to change the date of the election (as he contended he did not have the power to do so). When that failed, his Health Director, Dr. Acton, issued the polls closed on the eve of the election in order to protect the health of voters. A candidate on the ballot asked the Ohio Supreme Court to weigh in, but it refused to do only hours before polls were originally set to open.

In Wisconsin, Governor Evans (D) discounted calls to postpone their primary set for April 7 given that there were municipal races in addition to one for a state Supreme Court race set to occur. Interest groups filed several lawsuits asking for changes to the election, culminating with an April 2 decision by a federal district court judge to allow any absentee ballot received by April 13 (and not necessarily postmarked by April 7 as required by statute) to be counted as valid. Governor Evans had a change of heart on April 3 and called the legislature into special session on April 4 to consider postponing the election, but it refused with both chambers only in session for less than a minute before adjourning. On April 6, Governor Evans declared the election moved by executive order. The legislature promptly sued, and a 4-2 partisan-line ruling from the Wisconsin Supreme Court struck down his order as an overreach of his emergency powers. A 5-4 partisan-line ruling an hour late from the federal Supreme Court also struck down part of the district court's ruling allowing absentee ballots not postmarked by April 7 but received by April 13 to be counted as valid. Thus, when voters went to the polls the next day, there was lots of confusion and long lines.

Modifying the terms of the election itself has proved more controversial. 16 states currently require an excuse to vote absentee, but 8 of these states have waived their excuse requirements for their upcoming election. Of the 8 remaining states, 6 are Republican trifectas and the other 2 have Democratic governors but Republican-controlled legislatures. Litigation has proved successful so far in handling opposition by Republican state officials.



Campaigns have also had to adjust to a new normal without canvasing and rallies. Especially for challengers in House or state legislative races, conducting virtual campaigning has been difficult as they have little staff or money when compared to incumbents. Even presidential candidates have been forced to rely on Twitter, Facebook, and text messages to get their messages across.

The political system as a whole needs to be more prepared for future election emergencies. As law professor Michael Morley writes, few state statues have comprehensive planning for a crisis that occurs around an election. He recommends implementing state statues that allow for election modification, postponement, and cancellation depending on the circumstances. Interest groups ranging from the Brennan Center to Free Speech For People have also rolled out their own plans for the upcoming elections.


Political Networks and Anti-Quarantine Protests


Isaac Stanley-Becker and Tony Romm at The Washington Post:
A trio of far-right, pro-gun provocateurs is behind some of the largest Facebook groups calling for anti-quarantine protests around the country, offering the latest illustration that some seemingly organic demonstrations are being engineered by a network of conservative activists.

The Facebook groups target Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York, and they appear to be the work of Ben Dorr, the political director of a group called “Minnesota Gun Rights,” and his siblings, Christopher and Aaron. By Sunday, the groups had roughly 200,000 members combined, and they continued to expand quickly, days after President Trump endorsed such protests by suggesting citizens should “liberate” their states.

The Dorr brothers manage a slew of pro-gun groups across a wide range of states, from Iowa to Minnesota to New York, and seek primarily to discredit organizations like the National Rifle Association as being too compromising on gun safety. Minnesota Gun Rights, for instance, describes itself as the state’s “no-compromise gun rights organization.”

The online activity instigated by the brothers helps cement the impression that opposition to the restrictions is more widespread than polling suggests. Nearly 70 percent of Republicans said they supported a national stay-at-home order, according to a recent Quinnipiac poll. Ninety-five percent of Democrats backed such a measure in the survey.

Sunday, April 19, 2020

From Charlie: Trump as Party Leader

 Question: Is President Trump a strong leader of the Republican Party?

Answer: Yes/No, depending on how you define “strong leadership”

Pro Argument

· He has a 90% approval rating among registered members of the Republican Party

· Trump is delivering to the core factions of the Republican Party
  • Fiscal Conservatives: Tax Cuts
  • Social Conservatives: Judicial Appointments
  • Business Conservatives: Deregulation
· Not only is he delivering to the GOP’s core factions, he has created a new faction of the Republican Party: Nationalist Conservatives
  • Nationalist Conservatives support Trump’s anti-immigration policies and trade deal alterations
Together fiscal conservatives, social conservatives, business conservatives, and nationalist conservatives make up at least 80% of the Republican Party.

Con Argument

· While Trump is delivering to the core factions of his party, he is alienating voting demographics that will be important to GOP success in the future
  • Minorities
  • Young Voters 

· Minorities and Young people vote Democratic:
  • Minority voters: comprise 40% of the Democratic party compared to the GOPs 12%.
  • Young voters: 59% of millennial voters identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, while only 32 percent identify as Republicans or lean Republican.
Trump’s xenophobic rhetoric makes the Republican party less appealing

Implications for the Future:
  • Voter turnout rates among these demographics was higher in 2018 than in 2014
Summary of voter turnout between 2014-2018:
  • Asian turnout: 26.9% to 40.2%
  • Black turnout: 40.6% to 51.4%
  • Hispanic turnout: 27%to 40.4%
  • Young turnout (ages 18-29): 19.9% to 35.6%


Not only is voter turnout increasing, but these demographics are becoming a larger proportion of the electorate

Minorities

  • Minorities made up 13% of the electorate in 1980
  • Minorites made up 26% of the electorate in 2016
  • Prediction by Growth and Opportunity Project: Minorities will outnumber white voters in the 2040s
Young Voters
  • Twenty years from now, by 2039, millennials and Gen Z will represent 62 percent of all eligible voters.
Takeaway: Trump’s leadership has caused a problem for the GOP because he alienates important and growing voting demographics. Trump’s divisive leadership leaves Republican Congressional leaders in a difficult situation. If they split from Trump on an issue, they may have a problem with their base; however, standing by Trump may cause future problems for the GOP.








From Maddy: Impeachment Messaging


Research Paper: Impeachment Messaging by Maddy Levine


The impeachment trial of President Donald Trump was a momentous event, marking the third impeachment of a United States President since the country’s founding. But what lies beneath the historical nature of the impeachment is what it showed about the dynamics of Republican and Democratic Parties in the Senate and House. Through researching the messaging campaigns of both parties, specifically focusing on the period of the House impeachment inquiry and vote, this process marked the breakdown of bipartisanship in and the growth of party polarization in Congress.

Convincing a Skeptical Public

Democrats challenge in the beginning of the inquiry was convincing the public that the investigation was necessary. To do this, Democrats focused messaging on a constitutional and nonpartisan obligation to pursue investigations into Trump’s infamous call with Ukraine. In contrast, Republicans faced the challenge of defending a president with an approval rating that has never broken higher than 49%. Their focus in early messaging was declaring the whistleblower report a non-credible source with a hatred for Trump.


Impeachment Inquiry

Democratic messaging remained steady in reiterating the somber nature of the inquiry, as well as that the process was not something they wished to pursue. They emphasized, especially in purple districts, that this was forced upon them by Trump himself. Meanwhile, Republicans struggled to come up with a coherent messaging scheme - messaging ranging between reframing the facts to state that while Trump did withhold aid, it was over foreign policy concerns, while others argued that the process was unjust.


Impeachment Debates

During the impeachment debates, the Democrats remained incredibly structured in their arguments. Emphasizing duty, service, and a pursuit of justice, they advocated for Representatives to vote for impeachment, and Senators to vote for removal. While Democrats invoked the Constitution, Republicans invoked the Bible, Pearl Harbor, and the end of democracy. Referencing a sense of unjust persecution, a dangerous precedent, and preserving democracy, they argued for voting against impeachment and removal.


Each party faced different challenges in winning support for cause - whether to impeach or dismiss. But with the sharp attacks against the foundations of the opposing party, and the inability of each party to agree on a single fact, it signaled the growth of party polarization, as well as the deterioration of bipartisanship within Congress. We currently are seeing the impacts, as Congress fails to come together in the face of COVID-19, still debating over the smallest amendments to relief packages.

Oklahoma City and Political Parties

Twenty-five years ago today, domestic terrorist Timothy McVeigh blew up a federal building in Oklahoma City, killing 168  and wounding more than 600 in the worst U.S. terror attack before 9/11.

In class, we briefly touched upon the implications for party politics.

A decade ago, Peter Keating wrote about Bill Clinton's response:
Oklahoma City that first allowed him to step forward as a national leader. As speechwriter Michael Waldman [parent of a CMC alum] wrote in his book POTUS Speaks: “It was the nation’s first exposure to Clinton as mourner in chief … In fact, it was the first time Clinton had been a reassuring figure rather than an unsettling one.”

Even more than that, Oklahoma City created a huge political opportunity, which Clinton quickly seized. On April 27, a little more than a week after the bombing, Dick Morris, then a little-known but influential Clinton adviser, presented the President a fantastically naked political memo that, as you can find in his book Behind the Oval Office: Getting Reelected Against All Odds, said: “Permanent possible gain: sets up Extremist Issue vs. Republicans.” Morris suggested using “extremism as issue against Republicans,” not by “direct accusations,” but via a “ricochet theory.”
 Clinton should “stimulate national concern over extremism and terror,” Morris wrote, and then “implement intrusive policy against extremist groups.” Morris predicted that radical right-wingers would write their local Republican congressmen, and that in turn “this will provoke criticism by right-wing Republicans which will link right-wing of the party to extremist groups.”
“Net effect,” Morris concluded: “Self-inflicted linkage between party and extremists.”

The Clinton Justice Department didn’t go as far as Morris wanted, but it didn’t matter. Republican members of Congress soon made fools of themselves defending militias. And Clinton found his voice. At a Michigan State commencement address shortly afterward, he told graduates, “There is nothing patriotic about hating your country, or pretending that you can love your country but despise your government.”

In his memoirs, Clinton didn’t mention the Morris memo, but wrote: “The haters and extremists didn’t go away, but they were on the defensive, and, for the rest of my term, would never quite regain the position they had enjoyed after Timothy McVeigh took the demonization of government beyond the limits of humanity.” Indeed, Oklahoma City gave Clinton the chance to pull his presidency together by advancing a positive agenda of triangulated social issues. And that strategy reached full flower in his 1996 State of the Union speech, where Clinton introduced a man named Richard Dean, a Vietnam vet who had worked in the Oklahoma City Federal Building and who re-entered the building four times to rescue people after it blew up. As everyone, including Republicans, stood to applaud, Clinton went on:
But Richard Dean’s story doesn’t end there. This last November, he was forced out of his office when the government shut down. And the second time the government shut down, he continued helping Social Security recipients, but he was working without pay … I challenge all of you in this chamber: Never, ever shut the federal government down again.
That’s how much Clinton got it: He explicitly linked the terror of Oklahoma City to the federal shutdown, and both to the Republican Congress. After that, Clinton barely needed to look over his shoulder to get reelected.
For your last paper, you might compare and contrast the militia groups of 1995 with today's corionavirus activists.   Might it be that politicians who side with the activists are setting themselves up for backlash in case the protests have bad consequences?

Saturday, April 18, 2020

Shutdown Conflict in State Capitals

Christopher Cadelago at Politico
Republican legislators in multiple presidential battleground states are amping up pressure on Democratic governors to reopen their economies — clashes that are certain to shape the views of a critical slice of the electorate in November.
Democratic officials across Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota are resisting overtures to roll back public health closures: Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers just extended his state’s stay-at-home order despite legal threats from Republicans, and Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf recently announced he will veto a GOP bill to expand which businesses are deemed too important to shutter.
The showdowns between emboldened Republican officials and Democratic governors are emerging as an undercard to the fall contest between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden. The GOP drumbeat comes as Democrats are seizing on Trump’s uneven handling of the virus to win the presidency and flip several statehouses.
Trump himself is stoking the angst on the right, urging in a Friday tweet to “LIBERATE” Michigan, Minnesota and Virginia. Those are among the states where protests of stay-at-home orders issued by Democrats are unfolding. But at the state level, the partisan standoffs are complicated by a tangle of Democratic directives that Republican lawmakers have struggled to unwind.
...
Minnesota is the last state in the country with a divided Legislature: Democrats won a majority in the state House two years ago and need just two seats to win the Senate. [SEE CLASS DISCUSSION FROM APRIL 9.]

AND NOTE OUR DISCUSSION OF THE NETWORK OF OUTSIDE GROUPS:

Salvador Hernandez at Buzzfeed:
While thousands of demonstrators swarmed the Michigan State Capitol to protest the governor's stay-at-home order Wednesday — honking horns, waving flags, and bringing traffic to a halt — dozens of Facebook groups were already springing up to organize similar rallies across the country.
"Indiana Citizens Against Excessive Quarantine," "Operation Gridlock Tennessee," and other groups with similar names drew people calling an end to stay-at-home orders, measures that health officials say are essential to stopping the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.
Protests against the guidelines are being planned across the country. The Michigan Conservative Coalition, the same organization that planned the Lansing protest against Gov. Gretchen Whitmer on Wednesday, is helping organizers.
...
Organized by the Michigan Conservative Coalition and the Michigan Freedom Fund, the protest has drawn criticism over its links to Betsy DeVos's family.
"I think it's really inappropriate for a sitting member of the United States president's cabinet to be waging political attacks on any governor," Whitmer said, referring to the education secretary.
The Michigan Freedom Fund was founded by Greg McNeilly, a political adviser to the DeVos family, who has provided financial support to the organization.

...
Meanwhile, more groups organizing protests across the US continue to show up on Facebook. Some have garnered only a handful of supporters, while others have quickly built up hundreds of followers.
"Pennsylvanians Against Excessive Quarantine" has garnered more than 48,000 members, while "Minnesotans Against Excessive Quarantine" has more than 17,000.
Both groups have nearly identical descriptions...And while some groups are receiving guidance from Michigan about how to organize their own protests against stay-at-home orders, they too are passing the playbook to other states, urging them to replicate the demonstrations.

Avoid the Passive Voice

Friday, April 17, 2020

Research Paper: Messaging & Public Opinion on Congress as an Institution

Congress is unpopular: I know, surprise surprise, right?

Public approval of Congress has not exceeded 30 percent in a decade and researchers have connected this disapproval to increased gridlock, partisan polarization, and increased media coverage. However, there is a dearth of studies on the effect of partisan conflict on public opinion on Congress as an institution. By exploring how the increased usage of messaging and message votes could affect public opinion on Congress as a democratic institution through an overview of existing research and two case studies, we can further understand the impact of partisanship on the American people’s faith in democracy.

Here is what researchers have found so far:

  • The more knowledgeable Americans are about Congress, the less they believe Congress is doing a good job. However, higher education level is also related to more support for Congress from a purely institutional standpoint.
  • The main policy complaint on Congress as an institution is not its partisan lean, but its ineffectiveness.
  • The public punishes Congress with lower approval when it engages in interbranch and intra-institutional conflict.
  • In the aggregate, citizens’ view of Congress responds negatively to veto overrides, intra-Congress conflict, and the passage of major bills.
  • Most people believe that Congressmembers do not often take responsibility for mistakes and that Congressmembers behave unethically at least some of the time without facing serious consequences. They also have less confidence that Congressmembers care about people, provide fair and accurate information, and handle resources responsibly than others also in positions of power such as public school principals, police officers, and religious leaders.
  • There has been a substantial increase in social media presence by Congressmembers and a surge in oppositional language in Congressional social media posts in the past five years.
Taken together, these findings suggest that there could be a connection between messaging and lack of faith in Congress as an institution.

Next, I explored two case studies, the Affordable Care Act and tax cuts in 2018. Both cases are examples of messaging campaigns where one party actively worked to make the system ineffective, negatively impacting the American people and contributing to the perception that Congress is nonfunctional and untrustworthy

Therefore, existing research demonstrates a plausible connection between increased partisan messaging and lack of faith in Congress as an institution. Without further research, it is impossible to prove correlation or causation; however, this exploration of the current research reveals a significant hole in the literature. If causation or correlation were found, it would imply that partisan conflict not only is counterproductive to party interests, but could weaken American democracy. 

Last Assignment, Spring 2020

Pick one:
  • For responsible party government to happen, writes Hershey (p. 350), "all the elected branches of government would have to be controlled by the same party at a particular time." [Emphasis in the original.]  This situation existed in 2017 and 2018.  So did we have responsible party government?  Explain with reference to class readings, discussions, and outside research.
  • Lee finished her book before the 2016 election.  Write an update.  Explain how subsequent events either confirm the chapter's argument or raise new questions that the author does not address.
  • Should the United States adopt structural reforms to encourage a multiparty system?  Explain why or why not.  And if not, what kinds of changes would be necessary?
  • This article suggests a parliamentary system for the United States:  https://nationalinterest.org/feature/america-needs-parliament-17220.  Agree or disagree?  Explain.
  • How will COVID-19 change the party system?  Will it diminish polarization or increase it?  Will it strengthen, weaken, or transform either party?
  • Pick a relevant topic of your choice, subject to my approval.  If you have a passion that bears a plausible connection to American political parties, write about it.
The specifications:
  • Essays should be typed (12-point), double-spaced, and no more than four pages long. I will not read past the fourth page. Please submit papers as Word documents, not pdfs.
  • Cite your sources. Please use endnotes in Turabian format. Endnotes do not count against the page limit. Please do not use footnotes, which take up too much page space. 
  • Watch your spelling, grammar, diction, and punctuation. Errors will count against you. Return essays to the Sakai dropbox for this class by 11:59 PM, Wednesday May 6.