Carmichael Project Post - The Low and Decreasing Polarization of the Florida State Legislature

Florida sees some of the country's closest statewide elections. Since 2010, each presidential and gubernatorial race was decided by 1.2% or less. The 2018 US Senate race between incumbent Bill Nelson (D) and two-term Governor Rick Scott (R), decided by 0.13%, was the most expensive Senate Race ever. Despite the association between high competition and high polarization, Florida’s legislature shows relatively low polarization, with evidence that it has decreased further over the last several years. There are many reasons why this is the case, including:

•        Geography
•        Demographics (and demographic changes)
•        Moderate suburban politics
•        Recent history of one-party control

Geography

            Florida has a unique geography with several distinct regions.

• First (in dark blue), the southeast, dominated by Miami-Dade County and neighboring coastal counties, is the most urbanized region of the state which provides Democrats their widest vote margins – Democratic success statewide is closely tied to turnout here.

• Next, the Southwest (in light red), stretching from Naples to Sarasota, encompasses mainly suburban and exurban areas. This region has for decades been a traditional Republican stronghold with conservative suburban politics.

• The Interstate 4 corridor (in purple) in central Florida, stretching from Tampa to Orlando and the East Coast, is a perennial focus as it contains a high proportion of suburban swing voters. President W. Bush won the state by focusing heavily on this region’s “suburban moms [and] transplanted Puerto Ricans,” (according to a 2004 Reuters article) while this region also helped President Obama to two victories.

• Lastly, the northern and rural regions (in dark red and scattered throughout the state), contain mostly rural communities with suburban Jacksonville and the capital Tallahassee as outliers. These regions, like many rural areas nationally, vote very strongly Republican.

Because of the concentration of reliably Democratic voters in Florida’s largest cities, State legislative maps are favorable to Republicans (the Florida House map shown below).

This has resulted in strong GOP majorities in both chambers of the legislature, which are associated with lower polarization (Lee).

Demographics
       Florida has a diverse electorate with a politically significant Hispanic population.

        Florida’s Hispanic voters differ from Hispanic voters nationally, with large Cuban and Puerto Rican populations. In Florida, these groups have a greater conservative lean than Hispanic groups in other states. While 30% of Hispanic voters nationally voted for Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections, roughly 45% of Florida’s Hispanic voters did so (when GOP gubernatorial and US Senate candidates won by 33,000 and 10,000 votes respectively – over 8 million votes were cast in total).

        Florida’s mostly-white suburban populations throughout the state contain many independents and political moderates. Nationally such areas have displayed a shift towards the Democratic Party, and while these areas have a traditional GOP-lean, Florida’s suburbs partially reflect the national trend. Additionally, Florida’s suburban and exurban populations are expanding rapidly – the state’s population increased by over 300,000 in 2019, with much of this growth in suburbs (over 30x Scott’s 2018 Senate race margin of victory!).

           Many of these new suburban residents are from liberal Northeastern states, drawn to Florida by (among many wonderful things) no state income tax, favorable business environment, and warm weather. As voters, these residents contribute to moderate suburban politics, emphasizing both economic/business issues and quality services like education and environmental protection. Both Democratic and Republican appeals are effective among these voters, who contribute to lower polarization among representatives from Florida’s most competitive areas.

            Additionally, given the wide variation in the types of districts served by each party (Democrats – dense urban to sparse suburban; GOP – rural to suburban) cohesive polarized party behavior is less likely (according to Hershey).

Moderate Suburban Politics

            Many of Florida’s districts are dominantly rural or dominantly urban, seeing strong performance from Republicans or Democrats respectively. Competition primarily occurs in suburban areas that have traditionally voted Republican. Democrats have begun to win State House seats in these areas, winning 8 (netting 6) in 2018. These candidates almost uniformly ran on moderate platforms and eschewed fierce partisanship – to win, they had to attract independent voters who routinely vote for members of both parties.

            Margaret Good (D) of Florida’s 72^nd House District (full disclosure, my home district) demonstrates a centrist strategy of Democrats in GOP-dominated areas which contributes to lower legislative polarization (see below picture from her 2020 US House campaign to unseat popular incumbent Vern Buchanan (R)). Her 2018 special election to flip the seat she currently holds received national attention as has her current campaign - the DCCC added the race to its “full offensive battlefield,” and she received the Blue Dog Coalition’s first 2020 endorsement.

“We need a representative who will listen to people, work hard, and do the right thing; even when it means working with those you don’t always agree with or standing up to your own party. That’s what Margaret’s done in the Florida House, and that’s what she’ll do in Congress” 

         Conversely, some Republicans are seeing suburban growth creep into previously rural districts. Where once reelection may have been safe for any Republican, some far-right representatives are beginning to face tougher reelection against moderate candidates whose views hew closer to those of a new constituent base.

History of One-Party Control

(The Independent governor in 2010 was Charlie Crist. Elected as a Republican in 2006, he became an Independent in April 2010, then became a Democrat in 2014, and now represents an I-4-adjacent St. Petersburg US House District)

            Republicans have held a state government trifecta for over two decades and retain a large legislative majority. They held a supermajority in the State House twice over the last decade. Democrats, on the strength of moderate suburban candidates, have their largest number of seats in either chamber since the early 2000’s. Despite some success, Democrats are not anywhere near a majority which, according to Lee, leads to less polarization. This is the case in Florida, where Democrats can be much more effective in competitive districts by demonstrating an ability to work with the decades-long governing party than by engaging in partisan fights - Florida swing voters are more than happy to vote for either Party.

            Governor Ron DeSantis (R) has also contributed to lower legislative polarization by acting on Democratic priorities in the 2020 budget (which almost certainly will have to be remade following the coronavirus crisis), including higher pay for state employees and greatly expanded environmental protection spending. It was the first budget to unanimously pass both chambers of the state legislature since 2012.

But…

If DeSantis and/or Trump see their favorability drop following the coronavirus crisis, competitive elections on every level in Florida will become MUCH harder for the GOP, opening room for Democrats.

Demographic changes in the state do not favor Republicans. As the oldest voters die, they are replaced several times over by immigrants from liberal states and the Caribbean who, while often moderate to conservative in their views, do not vote for the GOP at nearly as high a rate. If Democrats continue to win seats and move close enough to compete for a majority, then polarization could increase in the future.