From Charlie: Trump as Party Leader

 Question: Is President Trump a strong leader of the Republican Party?

Answer: Yes/No, depending on how you define “strong leadership”

Pro Argument

· He has a 90% approval rating among registered members of the Republican Party

· Trump is delivering to the core factions of the Republican Party

• Fiscal Conservatives: Tax Cuts
• Social Conservatives: Judicial Appointments
• Business Conservatives: Deregulation

· Not only is he delivering to the GOP’s core factions, he has created a new faction of the Republican Party: Nationalist Conservatives

• Nationalist Conservatives support Trump’s anti-immigration policies and trade deal alterations

Together fiscal conservatives, social conservatives, business conservatives, and nationalist conservatives make up at least 80% of the Republican Party.

Con Argument

· While Trump is delivering to the core factions of his party, he is alienating voting demographics that will be important to GOP success in the future

• Minorities
• Young Voters 

· Minorities and Young people vote Democratic:

• Minority voters: comprise 40% of the Democratic party compared to the GOPs 12%.
• Young voters: 59% of millennial voters identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, while only 32 percent identify as Republicans or lean Republican.

Trump’s xenophobic rhetoric makes the Republican party less appealing

Implications for the Future:

• Voter turnout rates among these demographics was higher in 2018 than in 2014

Summary of voter turnout between 2014-2018:

• Asian turnout: 26.9% to 40.2%
• Black turnout: 40.6% to 51.4%
• Hispanic turnout: 27%to 40.4%
• Young turnout (ages 18-29): 19.9% to 35.6%

Not only is voter turnout increasing, but these demographics are becoming a larger proportion of the electorate

Minorities

• Minorities made up 13% of the electorate in 1980
• Minorites made up 26% of the electorate in 2016
• Prediction by Growth and Opportunity Project: Minorities will outnumber white voters in the 2040s

Young Voters

• Twenty years from now, by 2039, millennials and Gen Z will represent 62 percent of all eligible voters.

Takeaway: Trump’s leadership has caused a problem for the GOP because he alienates important and growing voting demographics. Trump’s divisive leadership leaves Republican Congressional leaders in a difficult situation. If they split from Trump on an issue, they may have a problem with their base; however, standing by Trump may cause future problems for the GOP.