How Democratic or Republican Is Your Name?

Clarity Campaigns has a fun widget that lets  you see how Democratic or Republican your first name is.

Click here.

Polarization and Turnout

Pew data on partisan polarization

The religious dimension:

• The denomination story
• Story today about the "nones"
• Partisanship and evolution

Voting and Registration in 2012

Voting Difficulties

Scott Walker busted for breaking campaign rules...while running for college president

As we just finished up our own round of student elections, the Huffington Post reports that Wisconsin governor Scott Walker broke his college's rules for campaigning for president of Marquette University's student government back in 1988.

The HuffPo piece links to a picture of an old article from the Marquette student paper that Walker was found guilty of campaigning before he registered as a candidate. I wonder if the oppo researchers at the Golden Antlers will find some similar illegal activity in this round of ASCMC elections.

Nation Builder

http://mashable.com/2012/03/27/nationbuilder/
Linked above is a short informative article about Nation Builder and their founder Jim Gilliam.
NB a LA based startup which attempts to bring organizing into the hands of the masses.
As the internet plays a bigger and bigger role in campaigns Nation Builder offers a cheaper more accessible version of campaign platforms. They are also hiring in LA, for all seniors that are interested!

Party Registration, Party Identification, and Party Alignment

Party registration is not the same as party identification

Twenty-one states do not even provide for party registration: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin.

Twenty-nine states and DC do register by party.

Party change over time: another look at the cinematic map

TRENDS IN PARTY IDENTIFICATION

Party identification and demographics

The party bases:



Party identification and issues

The Heritage Foundation's shift from policy to politics

I thought this article was an interesting example of how partisan outside groups adjust to fit the needs of the party. In the past year, the Heritage Foundation has increased the size of its 501(c)(4) counterpart, Heritage Action for America. By putting more emphasis on Heritage Action, the Heritage Foundation has shifted its operations toward politics and away from policy. Advocates, including Heritage President Jim DeMint, argue the change is necessary to get Republicans on the same page, advocating a similar platform, and to attract young people to conservatism. At the same time, several top scholars and administrators on the 501(c)(3) side have left in the past couple months (including - for those who did the DC Program - Matthew Spalding). The article suggests that the resignations could indicate dissatisfaction on the policy side.

The Democrats' would-be Karl Rove

"Messina’s experience makes him extremely well-suited to become the left’s leading big-money man and shadow party boss...

Rove declined to comment on the comparison between him and Messina."

This article illuminates the somewhat messy connections between traditional party structure and candidate/cause-focused campaigning in the age of outside money. 

BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU POST ON FACEBOOK

The Topeka Capital-Journal reports:  

U.S. Senate candidate Milton Wolf posted a collection of gruesome X-ray images of gunshot fatalities and medical injuries to his Facebook page and participated in online commentary layered with macabre jokes and descriptions of carnage.

Wolf, a Johnson County radiologist anchoring a campaign for the Republican nomination with calls for federal heath care reform, said in an interview the medical images were legally uploaded to public social media sites and other online venues for educational purposes. They also served, he said, to demonstrate evil lurking in the world.

However, Wolf and others viewing these Facebook postings relentlessly poked fun at the dead or wounded. The gunshot victim, Wolf joked online, wasn't going to complain about the awkward positioning of his head for an X-ray. In a separate Facebook comment, Wolf wrote that an X-ray of a man decapitated by gunfire resembled a wounded alien in a “Terminator” film and that the image offered evidence people “find beauty in different things.”

Wolf declined in an interview with The Topeka Capital-Journal to clearly answer questions about whether he continued to place images of deceased people on the Internet. He asked to keep copies of the Facebook posts shown to him, but when denied, he walked away.

"I'm not going to play these kinds of gotcha games," he said.

Three takeaways:

1.  Be careful what you post on Facebook.
2.  Don't doubt for a second that oppo guys working for Wolf's opponent, incumbent Republican Pat Roberts, found this stuff.
3.  Be aware of how you look on video.  The footage below is ... well, see for yourelf.

House of Cards and Campaign Finance

Politico posted an article entitled, "What House of Cards gets wrong about money in politics," listing three major reasons why the international money laundering scheme in season 2 (without trying to give away too much of the plot) isn't that realistic. It offers another way of understanding some of the campaign finance laws that we studied last week.

Second Essay Assignment

Pick one:

• Pick any Super PAC that was active in the 2012 cycle.  (You may find a list here.)   Follow the money.  In what kinds of races did the super PAC participate? Who were the major donors to the PAC?  Why did they give? Be especially alert to organizations that provided money:  where did they get their money?
• Analyze how House of Cards depicts party organization, party in government, and partisan outside groups.  Explain how this depiction both resembles and departs from real life.  Why do you think the makers of the series present parties this way?
• Pick any potential 2016 presidential candidate -- other than Hillary Clinton. (You may find a list here.) Explain that person's advantages and disadvantages in seeking the party nomination.  In your answer, do not rely exclusively on current news stories.  Instead, draw on data on public opinion and campaign finance, as well as the history of recent nomination contests.  Under what circumstances would this person be a real contender?
• You may write on another topic of your choosing, subject to my approval. 

The specifications:

• Essays should be typed (12-point), double-spaced, and no more than four pages long. I will not read past the fourth page. 
• Cite your sources. Please use endnotes in the format of Chicago Manual of Style. Endnotes do not count against the page limit. Please do not use footnotes, which take up too much page space. 
• Watch your spelling, grammar, diction, and punctuation. Errors will count against you. Return essays to the Sakai dropbox for this class by 5 PM, Friday, March 7. Papers will drop one gradepoint for one day’s lateness, a full letter grade after that.

Jon Stewart Follows Up on Nick's Post

I don't know why the colors are weird, but Jon Stewart did a bit on ambassador appointments. Thought everyone would enjoy this!

More on the Money Trail

The Big Picture

Types of Advocacy Groups

• A brief word on lobbying
• IRS: disclosures by 527 groups
• Personal finances
• Wesleyan Media Project
• Guidestar (for 501(c)(3) groups)

America Rising:  an LLC and Super PAC  -- relaunched website

Super PAC Reform in the NY Times

Today the NY Times has an editorial  on Super PAC reform. A new bill, the Empowering Citizens Act, has been introduced by Reps. David Price (D-NC) (this is the Rep. former President Gann knows from Duke) and Chris van Hollen (D-MD). It would limit the spending of Super PACs clearly aligned with campaigns. It should probably be noted that both of their districts are pretty safely Democratic right now.

The bill would create a public funding system similar to the presidential one for congressional races. It would also allow parties to coordinate with campaigns to make unlimited expenditures, to decrease the power of Super PACs, as long as the party self-imposed new contribution limits of $1,250. It also prohibits candidates from fundraising for Super PACs and treats Super PACs for specific candidates as coordinated expenditures.

A New Case Against Contribution Limits

This isn't a new article, but it's worth bringing up in light of this week's topic. The article reviews McCutcheon v. FEC, a case heard in the Supreme Court this past October. McCutcheon (joined by the RNC) argues that the individual aggregate donation limits are a violation of the First Amendment. The court will issue a decision within the next few months, and it will be interesting to see what happens.

http://www.npr.org/2013/10/08/230218039/supreme-court-hears-another-challenge-to-campaign-finance-law

The Perks of Being a Bundler

In class today, we talked briefly about bundlers who get around campaign finance limitations by combining the individual contributions of many people and organizations and funnel them to a campaign. A graphic at Slate shows that in his second term, Obama has already nominated 23 bundlers to ambassadorships and cushy diplomatic posts. If Romney had won, maybe Kravis could have been the Ambassador to Fiji.

AFP fails in Iowa local elections

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2014/02/06/iowa-candidate-koch-backing-like-being-endorsed-by-charles-manson/

Follow the Money

In the 2011-2012, the FEC-reported cost of federal campaigns was about $9 billion.

That sounds like a lot of money ... until you realize that the total is less than half of what one corporation -- Procter and Gamble -- spent on advertising during the same period.

Milestones

• FECA 1971 and 1974
• Buckley v. Valeo
• "Magic Words" and Soft Money
• BCRA
• Citizens United

FEC limits and special party rules

Outside spending: an overview

Following the Money

• FEC Database
• California Data
• A Form 990
• The Churn

The Colbert Report
Get More: Colbert Report Full Episodes,Video Archive

The Dark Money Churn

Super PACs and state parties

In line with our topic on campaign finance, Politico reported yesterday on a problem for state and local parties, super PACs.

"State party officials across the country say the explosion of money into super PACs, nonprofit groups and presidential campaigns has made fundraising more difficult. And some of those outside groups are starting to take over the traditional local roles state parties play, spending big on voter contact and outreach operations."

Because these groups can focus on single issues and do not have the same disclosure regulations as political parties, donors are starting to funnel their money away from local parties towards issue advocacy groups and super PACs. As a result candidates are responding more to these outside groups and less to state and local parties.

Just to Follow Up on Katie's Post...

Oppo Guy

At Politico, Michael Corwin writes:

I don’t do stakeouts. There’s no sitting in my car outside some seedy motel with a camera, waiting for a candidate and his mistress to emerge. For one thing, voters don’t care about that kind of stuff—at least not like they used to—and campaigns usually avoid using really personal information for fear it’ll backfire and make them look ruthless.

But more to the point: It’s not a good use of my time. “Oppo” may be a dirty word in politics but trust me: We investigators aren’t the dirty ones–and the reality is, documents are where you really strike gold. I’ve worked on more than 170 campaigns at every level—mayoral, state legislative, gubernatorial, congressional and presidential—and you wouldn’t believe some of the things I’ve found spelled out in the public record, where anyone could unearth them. Like court records and newspaper archives. I also learn a lot just by talking to people who know the candidate. Basically, opposition research is a little like catching a fish—lots of tedium, but when you realize you’re onto something it’s the same flash of excitement and adrenaline as when you feel that first firm tug on the line.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/02/confessions-of-a-political-private-eye-103529.html#ixzz2tQVu6uVK

Click the link to read the whole story.  It confirms Lester Freamon's point in the The Wire.  It also suggests some similarities between the author and Mike Ehrmantraut.

Happy Valentine's Day from the GOP

The Republican Party made Valentine's Day cards! Ana and I got a kick out of them and wanted to share.

The GOP, Allison Lundergan Grimes and Woody Allen

This article, from a few days ago, really speaks to the discussions we have had in class about financial based activism and endorsements on candidate success. Kentucky Republicans are "calling on" (attacking) the Democratic Senate candidate Allison Lundergan Grimes for accepting campaign donations from Woody Allen. Normally this wouldn't be a big deal, but in the past month sexual assault allegations have been brought against Woody, again (Tangentially, the Woody-Dylan-Mia Saga is worth a read: here, here and here. ) The GOP is accusing Grimes for encouraging sexual misconduct because of the donations she has accepted from Woody and another Democratic Representative who was also accused of sexual harassment.

One choice quote:
"She’s [Grimes] more concerned with her liberal allies’ campaign cash than the women of Kentucky”


http://www.politico.com/story/2014/02/alison-lundergan-grimes-woody-allen-kentucky-2014-senate-election-103337.html

Gary Miller to Step Down--Maybe Democratic Tensions Will Rise?

POLITICO is reporting that Rep. Gary Miller (R-CA) has decided to retire, which pretty much hands his seat to Democrats (his district voted for Obama at a higher rate than any other district held by a Republican congressman in 2012). The question now is--who? Although former Rep. Joe Baca is also in the race, Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar and lawyer Eloise Gomez Reyes that are leading the money game and receiving the most media attention.

This race highlights some tensions between POGs and POs, as the DCCC has endorsed Aguilar, but many other Democratic (and nonpartisan progressive) outside groups, such as EMILY's List, have endorsed Eloise. It's possible both will make it to November, but I don't think the CA filing deadline hasn't passed.

Activism

"Traditional" forms of activism -- American National Election Studies

Online activism

Can Wendy Davis have it all?

An in-depth piece on Wendy Davis' place in Texas and national politics.  

"That Davis [#standwithwendy, now running for governor] is from Texas raises the stakes for Democrats. America's longstanding ambivalence about its most bravado-stricken state - I say this as a proud native - intensifies whenever Texans take their acts onto the national stage. ... Were Davis to take the executive office, the triumph would signify a taming of an ornery conservative ethos that resides throughout America but is nurtured in Texas like nowhere else...."

By Robert Draper 

-Claire G. 

Caucuses

At "The Monkey Cage" blog of The Washington Post, political scientists Christopher Karpowitz and Jeremy Pope write:

Moderates in the Republican Party would like to move away from caucuses and toward primaries, believing that more extreme candidates are more likely to come from a caucus rather than a primary. Our new research (gated here and ungated here) suggests that they have a point: Those who attend caucuses have a very different set of issue attitudes than those who take part in primaries. Moreover, Americans tend to agree that caucuses are unfair and give an advantage to the wrong sort of interests.

It’s a standard piece of conventional wisdom that the voters who show up for caucuses are more ideologically extreme than those who vote in primaries. However, the political science literature has not consistently confirmed that conclusion. Our research does something relatively new, however: We took a large survey of Americans and determined who among them had actually participated in a primary or caucus in the 2008 presidential nomination, based on data from state voter files. In other words, we did not rely solely on voters’ imperfect recollections of whether they voted in a primary or caucus (or not at all).

Even after accounting for many other factors, caucus attenders were more ideologically extreme than primary voters. In terms of their willingness to take consistently conservative or liberal positions on the issues, caucus attendees look a lot more like members of Congress than they do average Republicans or Democrats.

Partisan activists cycle in and out of US agencies

Here is an article in the Boston Herald about how activists are entering government agencies (The Environmental Protection Agency and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau), using them as a stepping stone, and quickly leaving for lobbying and government positions.

Partisan Activists Cycle in and out of US Agencies

GOP CTO

The New York Times reports:

In March 2013, the Republican National Committee released an autopsy of its 2012 losses, titled the “Growth and Opportunity Project.” Among the conclusions: Republicans were being badly beaten in the data war. Different party institutions did a poor job of collaborating with one another and with outside allies. While Democratic campaigns increasingly used advanced analytics and data gathering to rigorously test different ways of reaching voters, Republicans still relied too much on gut and instinct. They had failed to foster a “culture of data and learning,” as the Democrats had, and needed to deepen the talent pool.

One of the party’s first steps in that direction was hiring Andrew Barkett, 33, a former senior engineering manager at Facebook. In June, Mr. Barkett accepted dual appointments as chief technology officer of the Republican National Committee and of Data Trust, a firm founded in 2011 by prominent former party officials and contracted to improve the party’s voter file, its most prized asset.

In recent months, Mr. Barkett has built out a pair of Silicon Valley offices for the party and for the company. Data Trust has become a kind of party-oriented engineering firm, developing a platform that will allow Republican candidates and state parties to easily swap and share data on Republican voters and create other analytic products — a capability that Democratic organizations have had for years.

...
Mr. Barkett must draw talent to work on behalf of the party broadly, rather than for a single candidate. And the best engineers, he said, don’t see the Republican Party as the most modern place to work. “The G.O.P. has no culture of technical skill or excellence,” he said. But, he pitches recruits this way: “Who has a more interesting and meaningful big data problem right now? You can change the culture. You can change who the president is.” Mr. Barkett himself gave up stock options worth several million dollars at Facebook to join the Republican National Committee effort because he saw an opportunity to effect change.

Erica Harold

In Illinois, Erica Harold is running for the 13th Congressional District Seat as a GOP candidate against Rodney Davis, a GOP freshman Representative. Many have argued that she is exactly what the GOP's image needs; she's a former Miss America winner, African American, and a Harvard Law graduate. Further, she's been involved in politics, recently working touring nationally with Ed Gillespie in 2004. This Politico article talks about the backlash she's been getting from the GOP party, particularly locally, including an email from a GOP County Chairman calling her "a streetwalker". Also, the article offers perspective into the role that parties are playing on a local level to influence and determine campaigns. 

National Party Orgnanizations

Some stylistic points:

• Please submit your papers to the class Sakai dropbox as Word files, not pdfs.
• Introduce quotations. 
• For endnotes, use Arabic numerals (1,2,3), not lower-case Romans (i, ii, iii). If you are citing more than one source for a sentence, put them inthe same endnote: do not cram superscripts next to one another. And include proper Turabian-style citations, not just URLs. In Turabian-style endnotes, the author’s first name always goes first.
• Use proper shortened format for subsequent citations: 
• Avoid phrases such as “The purpose of this paper is…” They are not grammatically wrong, just clumsy.
• In American English, use single quotation marks only for quotations within quotations. Use double quotation marks at all other times. 
• When I give comments on papers or drafts, SW refers to Strunk and White, 4th ed.

The National Committees

• RNC  Videos
• DNC Videos

The Hill Committees

Republican...  NRCC NRSC
Democratic.. DCCC* DSCC*

*Chair appointed by party leader

DGA and RGA

• FEC limits
• Follow the Money

The art of non-coordination coordination

GOP v. Hillary

In light of Christie's bridgegate problems this article in Politico Magazine offers some interesting perspectives on who will run in the 2016 GOP primary. There seems to be a lot of support for Jeb Bush, Scott Walker and a few other predictable favorites from Republican strategists. A few of the strategists and the author of the article point out that the biggest problem for the Republicans is not who, but what? Given the factions of the party what is the Republican party platform? That needs to be determined for the Republicans to have a chance in 2016.

Romney's Out, So Who Gets his Money?

Just after our class discussion on it, Romney told Wolf Blitzer he won't be running for President in 2016.In this article, POLITICO outlines the decisions he now has to make about his donor list. He has an extensive donor list a PAC affiliated with him, Restore Our Future, managed to raise money based almost entirely on large donations. Moreover, a fundraising pitch from Romney himself would likely bring in large amounts of money. He was able to raise more than previous GOP candidates, and now potential presidential contenders are hoping he chooses to support their fundraising efforts.

GOP and Tech

Here is a piece that touches on next week's topic as well as our wind-up reading on technology.  Click the link for the complete story.

Reuters reports:

According to interviews with a dozen strategists from both parties, Democrats appear set to maintain their technological edge, potentially boosting their prospects in the 2014 midterm elections just as other factors - such as President Obama's sliding popularity - are likely to favor Republicans.

It is not that the Republicans are not trying.

The Republican National Committee is spending "tens of millions of dollars," spokeswoman Kirsten Kukowski says, to "change the culture of our data and digital program" with new data analysis teams in Washington and Silicon Valley. Meanwhile, independent conservative groups funded by big-money donors such as the billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch continue to have their own digital teams, typically focused more on issues - such as opposing Obama's healthcare overhaul - than on individual candidates.

But in a reflection of some of the divisions between the Republican Party's most conservative members and its more moderate establishment, campaigns and other groups often do not share information about voters and tactics.

And even as party leaders are aggressively pursuing a new digital game plan, Republican strategists acknowledge that some conservative candidates and their supporters remain wary of changing tactics they have used for years, such as reaching voters through television ads and door-to-door campaigning without much help from analyses of voter databases.

Some Republicans' skepticism was fueled in 2012 by the embarrassing failure of the Romney campaign's ORCA project, a data system that was designed to help get conservative voters to the polls and improve communication between campaign offices. ORCA crashed on Election Day, potentially harming Republican turnout.

"There's a fundamental cultural problem" in how Republicans have dealt with technology in recent elections, said Vincent Harris, a Republican digital strategist who this year is helping candidates such as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.

"Democrats are still a couple (election) cycles ahead of us," Harris said.

Strong Party Organization for the Republicans

We talked about strong party organization at the local level but not nationally. This Politico article speaks of a need for strong Republican organization at the national level so that the party can craft a unified message around inequality.

Koch Brothers and Following the Money

Relating to Wednesday's class, Mother Jones obtained a document from a confidential Koch brothers donor conference held last week that lists the attendees and scheduled meeting times. The guests at the conference included more than 40 wealthy donors and political operatives that operate within the Koch brothers' expansive network. Over half of the one-on-one sessions with the Koch brothers included representatives of Americans for Prosperity, the outside advocacy founded by the brothers.

Following the Money

Yesterday, we talked about following the money.  Here is a Washington Post graphic on the Koch network.

Religion and Parties

Yesterday, Noah raised the question about state-level partisanship and I mentioned the role of religion.  Chris Cillizza writes today at The Washington Post:

How religious you consider yourself is a remarkably accurate predictor of which party's presidential candidate you will vote for.

That fact was affirmed this week when Gallup released a 50-state study of the most and least religious states in the country. We took the data -- which GovBeat wrote about here -- and overlaid it with the 2012 presidential election results. Here's what we found.

The 19 most religious states -- ranked by Gallup as those who identify as "very religious" -- all went for former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney in 2012. (Romney won 24 total states.) In those 19 states, President Obama averaged 39 percent of the vote. ...

 On the other end of the (religious) spectrum, the opposite is true. President Obama won the 14 least religious states in the country. He averaged 61 percent of the vote in those places; if you take out the District of Columbia, which Obama won with 91(!) percent, the president averaged 59 percent in the remaining 13 states.

Needless to say, other forces were at work in 2012.  And as those of you who have studied stats should remember, you should always beware of the "ecological fallacy" -- assuming individual behavior from aggregate data. In this case, however, survey data do confirm the relationship between religiosity and the vote.  See exit poll data:

National Group Involvement in San Diego Mayor's Race

We talked briefly about the mayor's race in San Diego, and this article explains how the race exemplifies the nationalization of local politics that we talked about in class yesterday. Washington-based labor organizations have spent more than $1.2 million supporting Democrat David Alvarez, and Working Families for a Better San Diego, a group funded by the AFL-CIO and AFSCME, has spent an additional $3.6 million for the Democrat. DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz and other national Democratic figures have gotten involved as well. 

From State and Local to National

HOW TO USE BLOGGER

HOW TO USE LEXIS NEXIS ACADEMIC

PARTIES AND ELECTIONS


California Republicans
California Democrats

Los Angeles County Republicans
Los Angeles County Democrats

The National Picture of State and Local Politics

The Connection to National Organizations:

Republican State Leadership Committee -- financial data
Democracy Alliance -- a contentious look at funding

CVS to Stop Selling Cigarettes

Many of us have taken Public Policy, and thought some in the class might find this Washington Post article on cigarette sales interesting.

Republican vs. Republican in California

Here is an article about two Republican Congressmen, Jeff Denham representing the 10th Congressional District and Tom McClintock representing the 4th Congressional District in Central California, as an example of two Republicans differing completely on the issue of immigration reform.
Denham vs. McClintock CNN Immigration Reform