After Bernie Sanders emerged victorious in several
Western states such as Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington in the past couple days I
wondered how those victories affected chances to win the Democratic nomination
over Hillary Clinton. But it still seems like he has a ways to go before he can
unseat Hillary Clinton.
First, Bernie Sanders claimed that he only lost in
certain states because he chose not to campaign there. But Gabriel Debenedetti
poked holes in this claim, pointing out that, "Sanders invested in
television ads and spent three days in Florida shortly before it voted...(and)
he visited Texas for two huge rallies just three days before the primary."1 So it seems like Sanders can't necessarily
rely on the fact that he has campaigned in upcoming states for sure
victory.
With Wisconsin up soon on the schedule, Sanders is
hoping that the Wisconsonians, who are unhappy with Governor Scott Walker, will
connect with Sanders' message. Independents can also vote so that may help
Sanders too, since he will be hoping "independents and middle-class white
voters turn out for him."1 Since the state is 86% white and has a
"strong radical tradition"2 he could
use those to his advantage. However, Wisconsin looks promising for
Clinton too since she had success in neighboring Ohio and will be hoping for a
"big turnout from minorities in Milwaukee."1
She also seems to have the support of many labor unions
Sanders is also in such a big hole that it will
take many more victories for him to dig himself out of it. He still trails
Clinton by 268 delegates, so he needs to obtain 57%2
of the remaining delegates from the 18 states yet to vote in order to make a
comeback. He doesn't necessarily have an advantage in those states either.
Sanders tends to do well in caucuses since they require more passion and
organization, which he has. But, "the only caucus states left are North
Dakota and Wyoming. All the rest are primaries, in which Clinton has performed
much better."2 After that come
some more diverse big states, which plays into Clinton's strengths and the
polls have reflected that so far. So in conclusion, it seems like Sanders is
still a long shot to secure the nomination
2. http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/can-bernie-sanders-really-win-the-nomination?intcid=mod-most-popular
In addition to the uphill battle he faces in getting votes, Sanders is facing opposition from the establishment. Obama has told donors that the time is coming to contribute to Clinton's campaign. In addition, Democratic Senators are starting to put pressure on Sanders to drop out, or at least ease off criticism of Clinton.
ReplyDelete“It will be almost impossible for Sen. Sanders to catch up. And he should do the math and draw his own conclusions,” said Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.).
“The writing’s on the wall,” said Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.).
“That’s something he’s going to have to decide,” Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said of how long Sanders remains in the race. “She’s going to be the nominee.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/bernie-dems-winddown-220966
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/18/us/politics/obama-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders.html?_r=0