Parties and Congressional Elections

Election tip sheets and data

• Sabato Crystal Ball
• Rothenberg Gonzales
• RealClearPolitics
• State data: party id and Obama approval

The Big Picture

• Incumbents Usually Win 
• Midterms Are Bad for the President's Party
• Over time, the president's party loses seats 

The Senate

• The Class System (class III is up in 2016)
• The Exposure of the Class of 2014 and the results
• Senate coattails in 2012?
• Seats and Votes in the Senate

The House

• Example: California
• Gerrymandering: cracking, packing, merging, isolating
• Unintentionial gerrymandering
• GOP Advantage in Non-Minority Districts
• The "bench" advantage shifts to the GOP

Parties and Issues (Herrnson 92-93)

Hill committees and campaign triage (Herrnson 101)

• NRCC Young Guns and Patriot
• DCCC Red to Blue and Frontline
• DSCC and NRSC have fewer races to handle

NON-COORDINATION COORDINATION WITH POG -- Example of Scott Peters (Herrnson 126-127).