Well-Done

For the write-up, what outcome surprised you the most and why?

Next week, everyone will give a brief talk on the research paper.  Prepare to speak for 5 minutes and take questions for 2-3 minutes on these questions:

• What is the main point you are making?
• What evidence are you using?
• Are you looking for additional evidence?  If so, what kind?

If you want to display a graph, table, map, or photo, email it to me by the night before class, so I can post it on the blog.  You do not need a PowerPoint just to repeat what you are saying.

Here is the schedule.  You may swap slots, but tell me in advance.

Monday:

• Peter
• Nick C.
• Lily
• Kurt
• Jasper
• Dean
• Isaiah
• Sohani

Wednesday:

• Charlie
• Keith
• Chantal
• Omar
• Emily
• Nicholas S.
• Thea

WELL-DONE SCENARIO: Dems gain an astounding 43 House seats (NYT estimate) and at least 7 Senate seats, and maybe 9.

Election summary

EXIT POLL

A remarkable social media post by J.D. Vance

Specific races:

• Kurt: KY 6
• Charlie: NY 17
• Keith: TX 15

Bigger picture: nationalization of elections

• Trump job approval

Iran war: 

• Americans are not antiwar, but they want their hot wars to be purposeful and time-limited.
• Poll: 34% approve of the strikes; 54% say the war wasn’t worth fighting.
• Memories of Vietnam
• Iraq and Afghanistan

Energy: 

• The war is a significant driver of higher fuel prices, with gas back above $4.
• Diesel hit farm states, home heating oil in the Northeast

Inflation: 

•  Not extreme by the standards of late 1970s and early 1980s, but...
• Prices rose 0.6% in September, for 3.7% annual inflation. 
• It’s the top issue for a plurality.

Tariffs: 

• They’ll cost households about $920 in 2026, and consumers see the link to prices. 
• The Canada trade war hit Michigan, Maine, and Ohio

Data centers: 

• Residential electricity is up 14% since January 2025, 
•  60% wouldn’t be comfortable with one nearby.

Immigration: 

• Border crossings are at a 50-year low, but 
• Republican support among Hispanic voters has slipped since 2024.
• Little noticed:  ICE is also going after Asians.

Four Strategic Postures Since 2000 (House, by election year) 

                    Majority                              Minority 

In Party        Dems 08, 20                     GOP 06, 18, 26

                    GOP 00, 02, 04, 16, 24      Dem 10,12,14,22

           

Out Party     GOP 10,12,14,22              GOP 08, 20

                    Dem 06, 18, 26                  Dem 00, 02, 04, 16, 24