Some Data on Party Performance

Trump approval ratings

The New York Times just posted this story by Jonathan Martin and Denise Lu:

President Trump’s surprise victory and divisive governing style have galvanized Democrats in ways the party could have only dreamed of in the Obama years, when enthusiasm for its candidates sagged whenever Barack Obama was not on the ballot.

There is perhaps no better illustration of Mr. Trump’s impact on the midterm campaign than in the soaring number of Democratic House candidates running for their party’s nomination in the primaries.

 Chris Cillizza at CNN:

The 2018 House playing field keeps shifting and expanding -- and all of the changes favor Democrats.

The Cook Political Report, a leading independent political handicapping site, moved 13 races in Democrats' favor on Friday morning -- changes that mean that 50 Republican-held seats are rated as competitive while just five(!) Democratic seats are seen that same way. That's 10 times as many! (That quick math should win me the Fields Medal, right?)

If you count up only the Republican seats that Cook rates as "toss-ups" (21) or leaning or likely to go to Democrats (eight), the minority party has six more seats than it needs to retake the majority. (Republicans have a 23-seat edge at the moment.)

"Overall, Democrats would need to win 27 of the 55 competitive races to win a majority," wrote Cook's David Wasserman. "We continue to view Democrats the slight favorites for House control."