Matt Grossmann on Parties and Policy Agendas

This morning, Matt Grossmann published this article in The Detroit Free Press:

How the coronavirus pandemic will disrupt state partisan agendas

While many Democratic governors have ordered their citizens to stay home in response to COVID-19 outbreaks, Republican governors have been slower to respond. Alabama Governor Kay Ivey initially dismissed the strongest measures, saying “we are not California.” And Florida Governor Ron Desantis sought to deter New York drivers before limiting his own beachgoers.

But the immediate partisan division does not mean red and blue states will continue on divergent paths over the long term. Instead, the crisis is likely to force all states into reactive mode, refocusing on immediate needs and limiting broader policy options. As in the last recession, all states may be forced to rely on federal help and cut back when it runs dry.

What does this mean for state legislators and policymaking in the future? We can hope that the COVID-19 crisis brings political adversaries closer together, but is that justified?
A once-in-a-generation crisis is likely to interrupt partisan trends in progress in the states, but it is not as anomalous as it seems. The tendency for governance to fail to match the aspirations of campaign rhetoric is longstanding.

Last year’s auspicious opening for Democrats may be one casualty. Democrats took control of several new state legislatures and governorships, vowing transformative agendas. And state governments were in better financial condition to make good on those promises. But now revenues are drying up quickly as expenses mount. Nearly all states are now focused on the crisis, postponing new leaders’ other priorities.

Governors have been taking the lead in crisis response, with many legislatures closing early and discarding their pre-virus issue agendas. But legislators will have a lot on their plates when they return: not only addressing ongoing health crises but also adjusting state budgets downward, responding to federal action, addressing safety net needs, and reopening society. State budgets respond more to economic conditions and federal incentives than state partisanship, especially in recessions.

Republican efforts to increase program work requirements and bring competition to health care and education suddenly look neither feasible nor pertinent, but the same is true of Democratic proposals for free college or carbon-free economies. All states have to restore delivery of basic government services (and elections). They cannot easily pursue the federal strategy of large deficits, likely limiting new initiatives to public health infrastructure.