“It’s hard to envision that” - @JoeBiden when asked by Brian Williams of he foresees Democrats meeting for a convention in a little more than 100 days. Adds he’d want to take cues from medical experts.
— Ed O'Keefe (@edokeefe) April 1, 2020
Tuesday, March 31, 2020
Conventions
Not unexpected, but Biden said tonight that the July Democratic National Convention will likely not happen as scheduled.
Party in Government I
In all bodies, those who will lead, must also, in a considerable degree, follow. They must conform their propositions to the taste, talent, and disposition, of those whom they wish to conduct: therefore, if an assembly is viciously or feebly composed in a very great part of it, nothing but such a supreme degree of virtue as very rarely appears in the world, and for that reason cannot enter into calculation, will prevent the men of talent disseminated through it from becoming only the expert instruments of absurd projects!Frances Lee (p. 31): "At no point after 1958 and before 1980 were Democratic majorities in Congress seen in serious jeopardy."
The tale of the tape:
Why?
In the late 1950s and early 1960s, Democrats gained strength in much of the country, but the GOP had not yet surged in the South.
Why did the South stick with Democrats in House and Senate races?
Review from earlier in the semester: Nixon was never serious about party control of Congress, and Southern Democratic pols managed to thread the needle of attracting the newly-enfranchised African American electorate without losing most of the conservative white electorate.
So what happened by 1980?
Race and the South: Lee Atwater speaks in an interview that did not surface until long after his 1991 death.
In the late 1950s and early 1960s, Democrats gained strength in much of the country, but the GOP had not yet surged in the South.
Why did the South stick with Democrats in House and Senate races?
Review from earlier in the semester: Nixon was never serious about party control of Congress, and Southern Democratic pols managed to thread the needle of attracting the newly-enfranchised African American electorate without losing most of the conservative white electorate.
So what happened by 1980?
Race and the South: Lee Atwater speaks in an interview that did not surface until long after his 1991 death.
Coronavirus Politics
As a previous post mentioned, bipartisianship is typical in the early days of major crises. Not this time.
I watched a portion of low rated (very) Morning Psycho (Joe) this Morning in order to see what Nancy Pelosi had to say, & what moves she was planning to further hurt our Country. Actually, other than her usual complaining that I’m a terrible person, she wasn’t bad. Still praying!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 31, 2020
Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats delayed the Workers Help/Stimulus Bill by over a week, trying to add real “junk” into the Bill. Got some bad things, having nothing to do with those affected by the Virus, included. Republicans need their votes until we WIN BACK THE HOUSE IN 2020!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 30, 2020
Meanwhile, a certain governor spoke truth to power:Our health care workers are putting their lives on the line every day, and our president is accusing them of stealing lifesaving supplies. It's time for Donald Trump to do his job, so our heroes are able to do theirs. Lives are at stake. pic.twitter.com/qiwRjrVUYz— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) March 30, 2020
Monday, March 30, 2020
Social Media and the Parties
From a few weeks ago:
Jim Rutenberg and Matthew Rosenberg at NY Times:
----------Read this morning's Technology 202 newsletter for the latest updates on Twitter's "manipulated media" flag. Facebook has now also labeled Dan Scavino's post of the edited video: https://t.co/IpgKIJ8Xr1— Cat Zakrzewski (@Cat_Zakrzewski) March 9, 2020
Jim Rutenberg and Matthew Rosenberg at NY Times:
The doctored video didn’t originate with one of the extremist sites that trade in left-bashing disinformation. It was posted on Twitter by Mr. Trump’s own social media director. From there, it collected shares, retweets and likes from the social media accounts of the president, his eldest son and the multitudinous conservative influencers and websites that carry his message to voters’ palms hour by hour, minute by minute, second by second.
The video, based on a speech Mr. Biden gave earlier this month, registered five million views in a day before his campaign responded — with statements to the press and cable interviews that largely focused on persuading Facebook to follow the example of Twitter, which had labeled the content “manipulated media.” A direct social media counterattack, aides said later, would have risked spreading the damage.
Yet the Biden camp would have been hard-pressed to mount a proportional response had it tried: Mr. Biden has only 4.6 million Twitter followers to Mr. Trump’s 75 million, 1.7 million Facebook fans to Mr. Trump’s 28 million, and nothing resembling the president’s robust ecosystem of amplifying accounts.
...
Part of the Democrats’ technological degradation could be attributed to brain drain. Many of Mr. Obama’s 2012 digital operatives found jobs in Silicon Valley or started their own companies.
But in interviews, Democrats also argued that Mr. Obama had not adequately worked to rebuild the party for his successors. After 2012, he started his own competing political operation, Organizing for Action, and Democrats complained he was slow to share his valuable data and email lists.
“Obama effectively left the party alone for eight years,” said Mr. Dean, a former Democratic Party chairman, adding that such neglect was not uncommon among second-term presidents.
Mr. Obama has acknowledged failing “to rebuild the Democratic Party at the ground level,” as he told ABC in 2017, explaining that he had been focused on presidential responsibilities at a time of war and economic recovery.The article goes on with detail about the GOP's more effective use of partisan outside groups.
Sunday, March 29, 2020
Louisiana's Democratic Governor?
Since Louisiana's Governor John Bel Edwards has been in the news lately, I recently noticed that he's a Democrat. I'm not too familiar with Louisiana politics so I was wondering if anyone who knows more about the topic could shine some light on how a Democrat defeated a Trump-backed, RNC-backed candidate in a state that voted for Trump by 20 points in 2016. From what I can tell, Gov. Edwards had some typical Southern conservative traits that the national Democratic Party has moved away from (for example, pro-life, pro-gun rights). But he also benefited from high African-American voter turnout as a Democrat.
Amid the coronavirus crisis, Trump is lashing out at governors who he doesn't like, potentially putting residents of those states at risk if they can't obtain the necessary PPE and ventilators. Will Louisiana receive less federal support because the state has a Democratic governor instead of a Trump-backed one? Louisiana (especially New Orleans) will likely need equipment and funding very soon, and according to Gov. Edwards:
Amid the coronavirus crisis, Trump is lashing out at governors who he doesn't like, potentially putting residents of those states at risk if they can't obtain the necessary PPE and ventilators. Will Louisiana receive less federal support because the state has a Democratic governor instead of a Trump-backed one? Louisiana (especially New Orleans) will likely need equipment and funding very soon, and according to Gov. Edwards:
“We haven’t yet been approved for ventilators out of the national stockpile,” he said. “I continue to press that case. I hope we will be cut in for a slice of what they have there.”
THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT: Coronavirus and the Absence of Bipartisanship
In the early days of a crisis, presidents typically strive for bipartisanship, and people in the opposing party typically respond in kind. Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-SD) hugged President Bush after his 9/11 address to Congress.
This.
Time.
Is.
Different.
The President:
The presumptive Democratic nominee:
Time.
Is.
Different.
The President:
Will someone please explain to the Fake News New York Times (ALL THE NEWS THAT’S NOT FIT TO PRINT) that the Democrats make it almost impossible for us to fill positions within government. They “maximum” delay even the best candidates, including Judges, leaving little time!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 27, 2020
The Fake News Media and their partner, the Democrat Party, is doing everything within its semi-considerable power (it used to be greater!) to inflame the CoronaVirus situation, far beyond what the facts would warrant. Surgeon General, “The risk is low to the average American.”— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 9, 2020
The Speaker:
Question: "Are you saying that [Trump's] downplaying ultimately cost American lives?"— The Hill (@thehill) March 29, 2020
Speaker Pelosi: "Yes I am, I'm saying that." pic.twitter.com/VzSbmc0UtF
The presumptive Democratic nominee:
Donald Trump’s ego will cost lives. pic.twitter.com/JNcGny13KO— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) March 28, 2020
In times of crisis, American presidents have always stepped up to meet the moment. But all we've gotten from Donald Trump are lies, excuses, and scapegoats.— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) March 26, 2020
Trump has failed our country at a time when we need him most. pic.twitter.com/d2vxUHGiH0
Saturday, March 28, 2020
Polarization of science: Dr. Fauci and conflicting opinions
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/technology/coronavirus-fauci-trump-conspiracy-target.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
The polarization surrounding science would seem like an oxymoron: science, an objective field based on discipline and reason, is under the scrutiny of many. In the last few weeks, Dr. Fauci has come under fire from a sect of Republicans, with many claiming they do not trust the information that comes from Dr. Fauci. Many accuse Dr. Fauci of trying to undermine the president, using tactics of fear and division to create discord among Americans.
While this has become a pattern in the last few years, one thing stands out to me that makes this case slightly different. We are talking about science. Dr. Fauci is affectionately called the "Michael Jordan" of infectious diseases and is on Trump's task force, and yet is the brunt of much criticism. Science should not be partisan, and yet in the middle of the worst outbreak in the 21st century, here we are.
Here is an interesting quote from the article that addresses the partisan nature of this issue: "The torrent of falsehoods aimed at discrediting Dr. Fauci is another example of the hyperpartisan information flow that has driven a wedge into the way Americans think. For the past few years, far-right supporters of President Trump have regularly vilified those whom they see as opposing him."
The polarization surrounding science would seem like an oxymoron: science, an objective field based on discipline and reason, is under the scrutiny of many. In the last few weeks, Dr. Fauci has come under fire from a sect of Republicans, with many claiming they do not trust the information that comes from Dr. Fauci. Many accuse Dr. Fauci of trying to undermine the president, using tactics of fear and division to create discord among Americans.
While this has become a pattern in the last few years, one thing stands out to me that makes this case slightly different. We are talking about science. Dr. Fauci is affectionately called the "Michael Jordan" of infectious diseases and is on Trump's task force, and yet is the brunt of much criticism. Science should not be partisan, and yet in the middle of the worst outbreak in the 21st century, here we are.
Here is an interesting quote from the article that addresses the partisan nature of this issue: "The torrent of falsehoods aimed at discrediting Dr. Fauci is another example of the hyperpartisan information flow that has driven a wedge into the way Americans think. For the past few years, far-right supporters of President Trump have regularly vilified those whom they see as opposing him."
Coronavirus and Party in Government
Brett Samuels at The Hill:
Trump tweeted, and later deleted, the following:
The deletion of the tweet is a possible violation of the Presidential Records Act -- especially if the White House did not officially archive it.
Breaking with tradition, the president did not invite any Democrats to the signing of the stimulus bill. At a time of social distancing, the attendees stood too close together (which was risky because several of them are over 60).
He then handed them souvenir pens. The distribution of pens is customary at signing ceremonies, but in this case, it was dangerous because pens can easily carry the virus. DON'T SHARE PENS!
President Trump on Friday blasted Democratic governors in Washington and Michigan for criticizing the federal government's response to the coronavirus pandemic, bemoaning that they had not offered appreciation for his efforts.
The president has repeatedly suggested that states should take the leading role in acquiring needed materials to respond to the virus, and on Friday he singled out two governors who have been outspoken in calling on the federal government to do more to facilitate the response: Jay Inslee (D-Wash.) and Gretchen Whitmer (D-Mich.).
Trump derided Inslee as a "failed presidential candidate" who is "constantly chirping." He told reporters Whitmer "has no idea what's going on" and asserted his administration has "taken such great care of Michigan."
Asked what specifically governors could be doing to assuage his concerns, Trump said he expected gratitude for what's been done so far.
“I want them to be appreciative. I don’t want them to say things that aren’t true," he said. "I want them to be appreciative. We’ve done a great job. And I’m not talking about me, I’m talking about [Vice President] Mike Pence, the task force, I’m talking about FEMA, the Army Corps of Engineers."
Trump nodded to Pence, who has been in regular contact with governors nationwide. The president said he's told Pence not to call the governors of Washington and Michigan, suggesting the vice president is "wasting [his] time."
"You know what I say? If they don’t treat you right, I don’t call," Trump added.
Trump tweeted, and later deleted, the following:
The deletion of the tweet is a possible violation of the Presidential Records Act -- especially if the White House did not officially archive it.
Breaking with tradition, the president did not invite any Democrats to the signing of the stimulus bill. At a time of social distancing, the attendees stood too close together (which was risky because several of them are over 60).
He then handed them souvenir pens. The distribution of pens is customary at signing ceremonies, but in this case, it was dangerous because pens can easily carry the virus. DON'T SHARE PENS!
Friday, March 27, 2020
Coronavirus and the campaign
I've been seeing stories from across the country of the ways in which the virus is totally changing the campaign cycle and forcing campaigns to develop new strategies and approaches in a variety of ways. Everybody is doing digital town halls because, as one candidate said, "The term social distancing is just about the perfect antonym to the term political campaign," but it goes a lot further than that:
- Politico reported on how this could be a saving grace for vulnerable Dems because it's taken all the focus off of impeachment: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/23/coronavirus-upends-battle-for-house-137888
- Slate focused on what the transition has been like for one particular campaign: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/03/morgan-harpers-house-campaign-switches-to-coronavirus-outreach.html
- The Boston Herald reported on how Sen. Ed Markey has become less aggressive on fundraising while his opponent for the Senate seat Joe Kennedy is using his email list to raise money for charities instead and has essentially put his campaign on hold https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/03/25/ed-markey-continues-fundraising-as-coronavirus-upends-u-s-senate-raceagainst-joe-kennedy/https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/03/25/ed-markey-continues-fundraising-as-coronavirus-upends-u-s-senate-raceagainst-joe-kennedy/
- (Bit of shameless self promotion here) Some colleagues and I spoke to a bunch of congressional candidates across the country about what they're doing now. Among the most interesting anecdotes:
- Coronavirus is basically all people are talking about and asking about in most places
- One candidate is doing small conference calls with groups of donors
- Candidates are stepping up as community organizers to spread information about the virus, with one candidate in Texas translating it to Spanish, and another organizing a fundraiser for childcare
- This is giving Dems an opportunity to slam the Republican leadership in the White House
- https://jewishinsider.com/2020/03/coronavirus-causes-congressional-campaigns-to-shift-focus-strategy/
Data on Religion and PIE
Thomas B. Edsall writes at The New York Times:
Dalia Fahmy at Pew:
Ryan Burge, a political scientist at Eastern Illinois University, has tracked religious trends for the past 30 years using data from the General Social Survey.
He reports that in 1988, 55.7 percent of Americans were members of traditional, mainstream denominations, 36.6 percent were members of evangelical and born-again denominations and 7.7 percent said they were not religious.
By 2018, membership in traditional denominations had fallen 20 points to 35.5 percent, born-again evangelical church membership had grown by 4.8 points to 41.4 percent, and the share of the nonreligious had tripled to 23.1 percent.
In an email, Burge warned that “in just a few years there will be no moderate Protestants left.”
This has been a windfall for the Republican Party.
As Burge writes: “Almost every predominantly white Protestant denomination — from Southern Baptists and United Methodists to Missouri Synod Lutherans and the Assemblies of God — is solidly Republican” This is apparent in the sea of red in the accompanying chart.
Dalia Fahmy at Pew:
President Donald Trump has often used religious language while in office, and he has surrounded himself with evangelical leaders and supported conservative Christian causes. But Trump’s personal religious beliefs and practices have not been as public.
Indeed, half of U.S. adults either say they’re not sure what Trump’s religion is (34%) or that he has no religion (16%), while just 33% say he’s Protestant.
And Americans overall don’t think Trump is particularly religious: A majority say Trump is “not too” (23%) or “not at all” (40%) religious, while 28% say he’s “somewhat” religious and only 7% say he’s “very religious,” according to a new Pew Research Center survey.
The Rally Effect
Jacqueline Alemany at The Washington Post:
President Trump is seeing a small spike in public support in the face of the coronavirus crisis: Six in 10 Americans say they approve of the job he's doing to combat the pandemic, and his approval rating is back up to match the highest in his presidency, according to a new Gallup poll.
By the numbers: Trump is seeing what Gallup calls a “fairly sudden increase” in job approval ratings — and among independents and Democrats no less. These dynamics — which Gallup senior editor Jeffrey M. Jones calls “both highly unusual for Trump in particular” — signal a boost amid the outbreak, which has infected nearly 55,000 and claimed the lives of more than 700 people in the U.S. as of this morning, despite efforts to slow the spread.
The numbers are striking especially since many public health experts, medical professionals and Democrats have criticized Trump for a delayed and disorganized initial response to the coronavirus crisis – including struggling to ramp up testing capacity and downplaying the severity of the early threat and potential for massive crisis.
- Forty-nine percent of U.S. adults, up from 44 percent earlier this month, approve of the job Trump is doing as president. As Gallup notes, Trump also saw 49% job approval ratings in late January and early February around the Senate impeachment trial that resulted in his acquittal.
- Trump's job approval ratings are up 8 points among independents and 6 points among Democrats in the poll conducted March 13-22, compared to earlier in the month.
- The 60 percent of Americans who approve of his response to coronavirus crisis includes 94 percent of Republicans, 60 percent of independents and 27 percent of Democrats. 38 percent of Americans say they disapprove of his response.
In keeping with past trends: “Historically, presidential job approval has increased when the nation is under threat,” according to Jones. “Every president from Franklin Roosevelt through George W. Bush saw their approval rating surge at least 10 points after a significant national event of this kind. [George W.] Bush's 35-point increase after 9/11 is the most notable rally effect on record. During these rallies, independents and supporters of the opposing party to the president typically show heightened support for the commander in chief.”David W. Moore, Gallup, September 24, 2001
:
Note that this spike occurred before Bush even started military action against the terrorists in Afghanistan on October 7.
Partisan polarization is part of the reason for Trump's limited rally. Obama got only a modest bounce after the killing of bin Laden.
Thursday, March 26, 2020
Class-Action Suit Against Bloomberg
From Zach:
A former field organizer for Mike Bloomberg’s Democratic presidential campaign filed a class-action lawsuit against the campaign on Monday, claiming Bloomberg lured her and thousands of other employees into jobs they were falsely told would last until November.
The lawsuit was filed in federal court in New York City by Donna Wood, who worked for the former New York City mayor’s campaign in Miami and was laid off on Friday.
Easter?
From Charlie:
I'm wondering whether people think this controversial opinion will hurt Trump in the upcoming election. I personally know Trump supporters who were extremely alienated by this comment. I'm wondering if "getting back to work by Easter" will have an effect on Trump's core voter base. Additionally, Trump commented that it is possible that more people will die from losing jobs and not going to work than from the disease itself. Is this a plausible statement given that we have no idea how long it will take to get this pandemic resolved? Additionally, I thought Governor Cuomo made a powerful point that, "No American is going to say 'accelerate the economy at the cost of human life.'" While I generally agree with this point, I have to wonder: Don't policy makers do these cost-benefit calculations all the time? For example, the speed limit of a road has a direct effect on the number of people who die. That does not mean that the government should make every road have a 10 mph speed limit. I guess what I'm saying is that most policy decisions boil down to life and death issues. My general question is: is there any validity to what Trump is proposing, or is he just saying this because he needs a strong economy in order to get reelected?
Good Resources on Political Money
From the National Institute on Money in Politics:
It's March, and Congress and many state legislatures are busy! If you are a reporter covering proposed bills, be sure to remember this arrow in your quiver: the National Institute on Money in Politics identifies the members of legislative committees in the states and in Congress, compiles data about who contributed to those committee members' election campaigns, and makes tools available to inform your work as you decipher it all. Institute researchers have nearly completed the 2020 legislative committee membership lists; you can access this essential information in three ways, all for free at: www.FollowTheMoney.org.
My Legislature allows you to identify who has contributed to the committee members considering legislation you care about, in addition to seeing who has given to sponsors of any piece of legislation. This enables you to analyze how political contributions correlate with actions by bill sponsors, legislators, and committees. My Legislature also contains information about what actions have been taken on each bill. Simply select for congressional delegates or select your state from the drop-down menu at My Legislature and use the tabs in the upper left to navigate your own very specific search.
Power Mapping for states or for Congress empowers analysis of how members of a legislative chamber or a committee may be inclined to vote on specific legislation or general issues based on their campaign donor pools. If you are an advocate, this tool can be extraordinarily useful for identifying legislators who may be open to persuasion either for or against your issue based on patterns in their fundraising. Journalists may find interesting stories here, as well, particularly in cases of legislators who have donor pools that are dominated by interests pushing a specific agenda. The Power Mapping page includes links in the lower right that describe the tool functionality and provide a video tutorial.
Finally, the Institute's powerful Ask Anything search function serves fully tailored searches. For example, with only a few clicks it is possible to see the largest donors to members of the New York State Senate Housing, Construction, and Community Development Committee or the largest donors to members of the U.S. House Energy & Commerce Committee.
With the Institute's freshly updated legislative committee membership lists and comprehensive campaign finance data, the possibilities are truly endless.
As always, do call us with any questions. We actually answer the phone: 406-449-2480.
###
The nonprofit, nonpartisan National Institute on Money in Politics collects and analyzes campaign contribution information on state and federal candidates, political party committees, and ballot committees. Its free, searchable database of contributions is online at FollowTheMoney.org
Wednesday, March 25, 2020
Party Messaging and the Stimulus
Republican senators are on message pic.twitter.com/BWqrvkYgZB— Anthony Adragna (@AnthonyAdragna) March 24, 2020
(Alyssa Roberts, communications director for CO Democrats, is an alum of CMC).This will be the biggest stimulus *ever* and Dems made sure it:— Alyssa Roberts (@alyssaaroberts) March 25, 2020
-expands unemployment to gig & self-employed workers
-$55 billion MORE for hospitals
-$150 billion for local govs
-no stock buybacks or executive bonuses for corporations#cosen #copolitics https://t.co/MCMJ9Sfq4m
March 25 Update
At The Niskanen Center, Rachel Bitecofer predicts the electoral vote:
Biden....289
Trump ..181
Tossup....68
At Politico, Alex Isenstadt reports on the party conventions:
Biden....289
Trump ..181
Tossup....68
At Politico, Alex Isenstadt reports on the party conventions:
Republicans said Tuesday they're forging forward with their national convention in Charlotte, North Carolina, this summer, even as the coronavirus is shuttering high-profile events across the country.
“We are fully committed to holding the Republican convention in Charlotte as planned and re-nominating President Trump. We have not had any substantive conversations about alternative scenarios,” said Richard Walters, the Republican National Committee chief of staff.
Democrats have also said they plan to move forward with their summer convention in Milwaukee. But the Democratic National Committee issued a statement on Monday that appeared to hedge, saying the party was “exploring a range of contingency options to ensure we can deliver a successful convention without unnecessary risk to public health.” (The party insisted that contingency planning is the norm for conventions, and that nothing has changed.)
Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Party in Government: Fighting Between Chambers and Parties
Take a look at the revised second-half syllabus:
http://cmc-gov123.blogspot.com/2020/03/emergency-changes.html
Next week, we shall start to discuss parties in Congress. This article nicely illustrates the fights both between parties and between the chambers.
Next week, we shall start to discuss parties in Congress. This article nicely illustrates the fights both between parties and between the chambers.
Heather Caygle, Melanie Zanona, and Kyle Cheney at Politico:
As Senate leaders struggled to reach a deal Monday morning, Republicans continued to scapegoat Pelosi, with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) blasting the speaker during an early appearance on Fox News and accusing Pelosi of trying to blackmail Republicans with a wish-list of demands. Senior GOP aides were also shopping around Pelosi attack lines under the cloak of anonymity Monday morning.
For most congressional Republicans, the blame-Pelosi playbook is a familiar comfort — an easy go-to as party leaders wrestle for the upper hand in negotiations. For over a decade, the GOP has poured millions of dollars into campaign ads decrying the California Democrat and her “San Francisco values” as all that’s wrong in America. And the coronavirus crisis has proved no exception.
What’s less clear is if the blame game will work this time around. Although Pelosi is closely negotiating with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), she doesn’t actually have a vote in the Senate. Schumer is the one who leads his caucus and instructed Democrats to band together against the procedural vote after the two parties failed to reach a deal.
Monday, March 23, 2020
Bloomberg Transfer
Bloomberg broke his promise to set up a vast independent-expenditure operation to help Democrats in the fall. But he is going to give a lot of money to DNC. How does this transfer not violate the limits that we discussed earlier? Read on...
Michael Scherer and Michelle Ye Hee Lee at The Washington Post:
Michael Scherer and Michelle Ye Hee Lee at The Washington Post:
Former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg has decided to donate significant components of his shuttered presidential campaign to the Democratic Party, a historic bequest that includes an $18 million cash infusion to organize for the general election in swing states.
The decision, which exploits a provision in campaign finance law available only to federal candidates, amounts to a shift in strategy for the billionaire political activist, who had previously promised to personally fund ground staff and offices in six states through an independent expenditure effort.
...
To accomplish the goal, Bloomberg will transfer cash remaining in his presidential campaign account, which he donated, to the Democratic National Committee’s Battleground Build-Up 2020 effort for use in the general election. The money will allow the party to hire hundreds of additional organizers, party officials say. Bloomberg also will transfer the long-term leases he has signed on some offices in some swing states to state Democratic parties.
...
Under normal circumstances, federal rules allow individuals to give a maximum of $355,000 per year to the DNC. The party has set up a Democratic Grassroots Victory Fund, a joint fundraising committee with state parties, that allows wealthy individuals to give $865,000 in one year. Bloomberg has already donated the maximum allowed to this account.
But the new shift of resources means he is able to give more than 20 times the maximum a donor can give to the national party in one year, because of provisions that allow federal candidates to donate unlimited amounts of leftover money to national and state parties as they wind down their campaigns. This has effectively given Bloomberg a super-donor status because he self-funded his White House bid.
Campaign finance experts said such a mass transfer of personal money was uncharted territory.
“This has never, to my knowledge, been an issue before, because anybody other than somebody worth multiple billions would want their money back even if they self-funded,” said Charlie Spies, a campaign finance lawyer who served as counsel for Mitt Romney’s 2008 presidential campaign.
If someone mounted a self-funded bid solely to evade the individual contribution limit and donate leftover campaign funds to the party, that would be considered a straw donation scheme, experts said.
But Bloomberg is shuttering a real campaign effort, and his decisions point to a loophole in the federal law that wealthy self-funded candidates can exploit, experts said.
“I think it’d be absolutely wrong to suggest that it’s a ploy to get around the limits. . . . But it does suggest you could do that,” said Beth Kingsley, a campaign finance lawyer at Harmon, Curran, Spielberg and Eisenberg. “It does seem that there ought to be limits the same way there’s an individual [contribution] limit.”
The Federal Election Commission does not have a voting quorum currently and cannot conduct official business, such as providing guidance on this matter.
Sunday, March 22, 2020
Conventions Are Still On ... For Now
Emily Glazer and John McCormick at The Wall Street Journal:
When the Democratic National Committee decided to move its convention up to mid-July—roughly two weeks earlier than in 2016—it was billed as a way to give the party’s nominee more time to focus on President Trump and spend general election dollars earlier.
The coronavirus pandemic is making that move seem riskier in retrospect, as Democrats face the possibility that much of the nation will be hunkered down for weeks or months to come. The earlier timetable is placing greater pressure on the party to decide whether the convention will move forward as planned.
Organizers of the Milwaukee gathering held hastily scheduled calls last week with groups involved in planning to discuss contingency scenarios, people familiar with the discussions said. Options mentioned on some of the calls included shortening the four-day convention by a day or holding a mostly remote event.
DNC spokeswoman Xochitl Hinojosa said the committee is “not considering a rules change at this time,” which would be required for a remote option to move forward. Chairman Tom Perez also said earlier this month that such changes weren’t in the works.
...
Blair Ellis, a spokeswoman for the Republican National Convention planned for late August in Charlotte, N.C., declined to answer questions about whether specific contingency plans are being discussed or donors are asking questions. That gathering is also expected to draw about 50,000 people.
Saturday, March 21, 2020
Comment from Charlie on Previous Post: Political Money
"I think this point reinforces the idea that you can’t buy an election. If money is not the most important variable in making a successful campaign, what is? Is it support from the party establishment, or is it how much the candidate’s message resonates with voters?" — Charlie Mounts
Bloomberg Fails and Reneges
Shane Goldmacher at NYT:
It was a billion-dollar flop.
Michael R. Bloomberg spent more than $900 million on his failed bid for the White House by the end of February, a spectacular sum and the most ever for a self-funded politician in American history. But it was not enough to help the billionaire candidate win a single state before he dropped out of the 2020 Democratic presidential primary in early March.
Mr. Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York City, poured more than $500 million into television advertising and $100 million on digital ads during the course of his roughly 100-day campaign, according to a new filing made Friday with the Federal Election Commission. He spent tens of millions of dollars more on a raft of media consultants, pollsters and digital strategists, the filing showed.
Mr. Bloomberg paid more than $15 million for polling, including $11.5 million to the firm of the pollster Douglas Schoen. He spent more than $11 million on the firm created by ad-maker Bill Knapp to work on the 2020 campaign and another $4.8 million on the firm of Jimmy Siegel, another ad-maker. He directed $45 million to Hawkfish LLC, a private digital firm he owned and created before he entered the race. More than $30 million was spent on direct mail. And more than $1 million on meals for his staff that swelled to more than 2,000 in a few short months.
...
The lavish spending came to a crashing halt after Mr. Bloomberg exited the race. Mr. Bloomberg had attracted aides with outsize salaries, perks that included Manhattan apartments for some in his headquarters and the promise of a steady job — whether he won the nomination or not — trying to defeat President Trump through November.
But plans for an independent super PAC have since been scrapped and former Bloomberg campaign officials said Friday they were transferring $18 million in leftover campaign funds to the Democratic National Committee instead. Campaign aides could reapply for jobs — at reduced salaries.Molly Hensley-Clancy, Ruby Cramer, and Rosie Gray at Buzzfeed:
That means many Bloomberg organizers are out of a job. Organizers in six swing states were informed this morning that they were being let go and given instructions for applying to the DNC.
“He’s chopping his employees in a pandemic,” said one staffer in Florida, who asked to remain anonymous because they had signed a nondisclosure agreement. “My life is now uprooted and I’m effectively homeless.
...
”Bloomberg had already broken a promise of employment through November to some of the vast army of organizers he had hired throughout his three-month presidential campaign, on which he spent a record $687 million of his personal fortune. Staffers who were not in swing states were let go earlier this month.
But at the time, said the Florida staffer, they were still under the impression they would be employed by a Bloomberg campaign entity. “We got the message, ‘Hey don’t worry, you guys are fine.'”
The Bloomberg spokesperson said staffers were being encouraged to apply to work for the DNC: “The DNC Coordinated Campaign is hiring in every one of the six battleground states we identified — and more. And we will assist the DNC as much as we are able to, including by providing names of staff and working to help them onboard and grow their program as expediently as possible.”
Friday, March 20, 2020
Party in Government and Potential Scandal
Senators Richard Burr and Kelly Loeffler have faced calls to resign after it was revealed that the Republican lawmakers sold off stock holdings before the COVID-19 epidemic crashed markets.
Both of the senators reportedly attended briefings on the novel coronavirus outbreak and publicly sought to calm nerves as they dumped chunks of their portfolios ahead of market turmoil in March.
ProPublica reported on Thursday night that North Carolina Sen. Burr, the Senate Intelligence Committee chairman, sold between $628,000 and $1.7 million worth of stock on February 13.
The stock dump came days after he co-authored a Fox News op-ed claiming the United States was "better prepared than ever before to face emerging public health threats, like the coronavirus."
Following the news of Sen. Burr's stock sell off, the Daily Beast reported that Sen. Loeffler of Georgia recorded a sale of stock on January 24—the day of an all-senators briefing with administration health officials that covered the COVID-19 outbreak.Sen Loeffler responds:
Joy Reid notes:This is a ridiculous and baseless attack. I do not make investment decisions for my portfolio. Investment decisions are made by multiple third-party advisors without my or my husband's knowledge or involvement.— Senator Kelly Loeffler (@SenatorLoeffler) March 20, 2020
Burr won reelection in 2016. Long before the story broke, he said that he would not seek a fourth term in 2022.Even before her alleged crisis trading she was put on the committee REGULATING HER SPOUSE. Who’s he? “Jeffrey Sprecher is CEO of Intercontinental Exchange which is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and owns the New York Stock Exchange.” https://t.co/GrZjzUsWdz— Joy Reid (@JoyAnnReid) March 20, 2020
Loeffler is an appointed senator. In December, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp chose her to replace Johnny Isaskson, who resigned because of poor health. Rep. Doug Collins wanted the appointment, and is running against Loeffler in a special "jungle primary" in November. This primary is like top-two in California but with a key difference: in the California top two system, the top two finishers always advance to the November electionr even if one gets a majority in the first round. In the jungle primary, a candidate who gets a majority the first time wins the election outright.
NRSC has a policy of backing the party's incumbents, even appointed ones, and harshly attacked Collins:
Following Doug Collins’ Senate announcement, the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s Executive Director Kevin McLaughlin released the following statement in support of Senator Kelly Loeffler (R-GA):
“The shortsightedness in this decision is stunning. Doug Collins’ selfishness will hurt David Perdue, Kelly Loeffler, and President Trump. Not to mention the people of Georgia who stand to bear the burden of it for years to come. All he has done is put two senate seats, multiple house seats, and Georgia’s 16 electoral votes in play. The NRSC stands firmly behind Sen. Kelly Loeffler and urges anyone who wants to re-elect President Trump, hold the GOP senate majority, and stop socialism to do the same.”
Thursday, March 19, 2020
A Negative View of the Top Two Primary
Top two has scored another victory for its supporters, which is to say there’s been yet another defeat for California democracy.
This dubious victory was in the Santa Clarita Valley, where a March election advanced two Republicans to November’s run-off elections. This happened in a district currently represented by a Democrat.
What happened?
Top two.
The ballot had only two Republicans—one got over 30 percent, and the other over 18 percent. But it had five Democrats, who split the vote almost perfectly. So the two Republicans advance.
Judging by the percentages of votes, Democrats and Republicans are relatively evenly split in the district. In a rational system, there would be one Democrat and Republican advancing. In a truly democratic system, of course, there would be split representation, but such proportional systems make too much sense to be considered sensible in the United States.
We are now 10 years into the top-two regime in California. I’ve been told for years by top two backers that in time, Californians would figure it out. We’ve been told that this would make our politics more competitive and more moderate.
None of that has happened.
It’s time to stop complaining about top two—and to end the experiment entirely.
PO, PIE, and Coronavirus
Suzanne Smalley at Yahoo:
In class, we discussed models for forecasting presidential elections. Alan Abramowitz, who developed the most accurate model, writes that current events could mean big electoral trouble for the incumbent:
BUT NOTE: A poll shows that a majority approves of Trump's handling of the crisis, which could have an effect on his overall job approval in the weeks ahead.
The race for the White House against the backdrop of the coronavirus will scramble this summer’s political conventions, requiring the political parties to scrap their planned gatherings and replace them with “virtual” online events, veteran political strategist Joe Trippi predicted on the Yahoo News “Skullduggery” podcast on Wednesday.
“Both parties have to prepare for some kind of virtual convention ... where delegates can vote by phone securely,” said Trippi, who pioneered an internet-driven campaign strategy when he was campaign manager for upstart Democratic candidate Howard Dean in 2004.
Calling the conventions “produced television shows for the party,” Trippi said the Republican and Democratic national committees will likely treat conventions as one night of a produced television show followed by a second night during which candidates give speeches and announce vice presidential picksNo doubt the national party chairs are talking with staff and electeds about this subject. RNC chair Ronna Romney McDaniel, BTW, has tested negative for COVID-19.
In class, we discussed models for forecasting presidential elections. Alan Abramowitz, who developed the most accurate model, writes that current events could mean big electoral trouble for the incumbent:
Table 2 presents the conditional forecasts of the electoral vote for President Trump depending on his net approval rating in late June and the growth rate of the U.S. economy during the second quarter. It takes 270 electoral votes to win a presidential election. The results indicate that, despite the huge boost that Trump is predicted to receive as a first-term incumbent, an economic downturn in the second quarter, combined with a net approval rating in negative territory, would very likely doom Trump’s chances of winning a second term. The only scenario here in which Trump would be favored to win a second term would be modest economic growth combined with a small improvement in his net approval rating, which has been stuck in the vicinity of -10 for many months according to the FiveThirtyEight average. The model suggests that a major recession would likely result in an Electoral College landslide for Trump’s Democratic challenger, especially if it is accompanied by a further decline in the president’s approval rating.
BUT NOTE: A poll shows that a majority approves of Trump's handling of the crisis, which could have an effect on his overall job approval in the weeks ahead.
Wednesday, March 18, 2020
AZ, FL, IL
At The Guardian, Lloyd Green sums up:
On Tuesday, Joe Biden delivered a crushing blow to Bernie Sanders’ already dimming chances. The former vice-president scored imposing wins in Arizona, Florida and Illinois.
Pro tip: turning a race into a referendum on Fidel Castro as Sanders did is a bad idea. In the Sunshine state, Biden’s margin was nearly 40 points. Looking back, the Vermont senator’s 2016 performance was more a function of disdain for Hillary Clinton than his call to revolution.
Biden has built a rainbow coalition that cuts across class. Indeed, the Delaware Democrat captured the votes of white people without college degrees, a prize that eluded Clinton and a bloc Donald Trump calls his own. A global pandemic and a market crash will sorely test the president’s hold.
As for Sanders, his quest has morphed into the quixotic, an exercise in rule or ruin, or all of the above. Reportedly, he will continue to tilt at windmills into late April, waging war in Pennsylvania and New York. But he lost both states four years ago and there is no reason to assume this time will be different.
Biden has now amassed more than 1,000 delegates, more than half way to clinching the nomination. The primary battle is over in all but name.
There was some good news for Democatic progressives. CMC alum Cameron Joseph reports at Vice:INBOX: Statement from Bernie Sanders’ campaign manager Faiz Shakir after last night’s primary losses to Joe Biden pic.twitter.com/dyD0dboIhq— Laura Litvan (@LauraLitvan) March 18, 2020
One of the last — and loudest — pro-life Democrats left in Congress lost his primary Tuesday night.
Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-Ill.) lost to former advertising executive Marie Newman, trailing by 48%-44% with 90% of precincts reporting.
Newman came just short of beating Lipinski two years ago, with the backing of a broad coalition of progressive groups. This time, she jumped into the election early, and they lined up to boost her past Lipinski, outspending him by a wide margin. EMILY’s List, which backs pro-choice Democratic women, backed Newman early on, as did a plethora of other groups including NARAL Pro-Choice America, Planned Parenthood Action Fund, MoveOn, Indivisible, The Sierra Club, Service Employees International Union and Our Revolution.And note Cam's observations on the decline of traditional machine politics:
[Lipinski had] largely avoided tough primaries in the solidly Democratic district because of strong support from the Chicago Democratic machine. Lipinski was handed his seat in Congress by his father, former Rep. Bill Lipinski (D-Ill.), and has a close relationship with Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan (D), who runs the state party and the city’s machine.
But that machine has weakened in recent years — and Lipinski’s district has continued to grow more liberal and more heavily Hispanic. After barely surviving in 2018, it was too much for him this time around.Fun fact: Lipinski is a political scientist and Congress scholar (with a book on congressional communication).
Tuesday, March 17, 2020
Florida as a Swing State
With my home state of Florida casting its ballots today I thought it would be appropriate to link this article from the New York Times that places the Democratic Primary contest in the context of Florida's swing state status -
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/can-democrats-win-back-florida.html
The article argues that Florida is a quintessential swing state and representative of many regions of the country:
"The largest presidential battleground state looked to be slipping away from Democrats. Then Joe Biden started winning primaries."
I wish everyone the best and hope all is well, can't wait to hear from everyone!
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/can-democrats-win-back-florida.html
The article argues that Florida is a quintessential swing state and representative of many regions of the country:
The liberal southeast, from Miami to West Palm Beach, votes like the Northeast. The traditional southwest, including Naples and Sarasota [my home town!], votes like the Midwest. The conservative north, especially the Panhandle, votes like the South. The swing middle — the Interstate 4 corridor that political pundits drool over during election years — is up for grabs.The suburban turnout that states like Michigan and Virginia saw in past weeks is very relevant in Florida where swing votes are a precious commodity - the last 2 presidential elections were decided by roughly 1% and 4 of the last 5 decided by less than 3%. Polling of the last several weeks has been very clear about who the winner of the Florida primary may likely be, but the sub-heading of the above article sums up the mindset of Florida Democrats more broadly as well:
"The largest presidential battleground state looked to be slipping away from Democrats. Then Joe Biden started winning primaries."
I wish everyone the best and hope all is well, can't wait to hear from everyone!
Primary Politics
For those who missed the Biden-Sanders debate on Sunday, here is a link to video:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/15/app-news-section/watch-full-cnn-univision-democratic-debate-washington-dc/index.html
Reid J. Epstein, Jennifer Medina and Shane Goldmacher at The New York Times:
Postponements reinforce what we discussed in class: American election law is highly decentralized, with states -- and not the federal government -- as the main legal authorities in most cases.
Reid J. Epstein, Jennifer Medina and Shane Goldmacher at The New York Times:
The Democratic primary race moves to Arizona, Florida and Illinois on Tuesday, with large numbers of delegates at stake for the party’s presidential nomination.
Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., who is ahead of Senator Bernie Sanders in polling in all three states, could build an all-but-insurmountable lead in delegates from Tuesday’s contests.
The polls begin to close in Florida at 7 p.m. Eastern; all polls will be closed there at 8 p.m. Polls close in Illinois at 8 p.m. Eastern, and in Arizona at 10 p.m. Eastern.
These are the first primaries to be held amid the heightened fear and restrictions triggered by the coronavirus. The Trump administration has recommended avoiding groups of more than 10 people, raising questions about turnout. But many voters have already cast ballots early or by mail, including many older voters at risk to the virus.Zach Montellaro and Alice Miranda Ollstein at Politico:
Polls will not open for Ohio's primary election Tuesday after a late-night decision from Gov. Mike DeWine, effectively upheld by the state Supreme Court, to delay in-person voting until June in an effort to protect voters and poll workers from the coronavirus outbreak.
"During this time when we face an unprecedented public health crisis, to conduct an election tomorrow would force poll workers and voters to place themselves at an unacceptable health risk of contracting coronavirus," DeWine said in a statement.
The election was in limbo for several hours Monday night after a state judge in Columbus denied a last-minute attempt by the state to postpone the primary election. But DeWine responded with an unprecedented order closing physical polling places as the legal battle moved up to the Ohio Supreme Court. Early Tuesday morning, four judges on that court issued a unanimous, unsigned ruling declining to stop the state from shuttering polls. Three other judges on the court recused — two because they're currently running for reelection and the other because he is DeWine's son.
The ruling effectively overturns the Monday ruling from Franklin County Judge Richard Frye that the primary had to continue as scheduled. Frye said it was too late to move back the primary and that doing so would confuse and suppress voters.
Presidential primaries that have been postponed due to the #coronavirus...— Niles Edward Francis (@NilesGApol) March 17, 2020
LA: April 4 --> June 20
GA: March 24 --> May 19
KY: May 19 --> June 23
OH: March 17 --> June 2
MD: April 28 --> June 2
Postponements reinforce what we discussed in class: American election law is highly decentralized, with states -- and not the federal government -- as the main legal authorities in most cases.
Sunday, March 15, 2020
3/15 Democratic Debate and Coronavirus
Hi everyone,
I thought I'd share this article from tonight's debate where Sanders and Biden respond to a question about their personal health risks if they contract coronavirus. They've stopped shaking hands and started using a lot of soap and hand sanitizer. But also, this clip of Biden coughing into his hand in the middle of giving his condolences to the families of coronavirus victims.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/election-2020/ct-nw-presidential-candidates-debate-tonight-20200315-v7fw6qi4hfby3czjcjb3ave7le-story.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/03/15/biden_begins_debate_on_coronavirus_with_a_cough.html?jwsource=cl
Hope everyone is making it through.
Ciara
I thought I'd share this article from tonight's debate where Sanders and Biden respond to a question about their personal health risks if they contract coronavirus. They've stopped shaking hands and started using a lot of soap and hand sanitizer. But also, this clip of Biden coughing into his hand in the middle of giving his condolences to the families of coronavirus victims.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/election-2020/ct-nw-presidential-candidates-debate-tonight-20200315-v7fw6qi4hfby3czjcjb3ave7le-story.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/03/15/biden_begins_debate_on_coronavirus_with_a_cough.html?jwsource=cl
Hope everyone is making it through.
Ciara
Saturday, March 14, 2020
Coronavirus and the Electoral Process
A president cannot unilaterally postpone or cancel a presidential election. Article II, section 1 of the Constitution gives Congress the power to set the date for choosing electors: " The Congress may determine the time of choosing the electors, and the day on which they shall give their votes; which day shall be the same throughout the United States." Similarly, Article I, section 4 says of congressional elections: "The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by Law make or alter such Regulations, except as to the Places of chusing Senators." Any shift in date would be limited to a matter of weeks. No executive order or statute could extend the terms of the president or members of Congress. The Constitution sets the terms (four years for president, two years for House members, six years for senators). And change in terms would require a constitutional amendment.
But there is a loophole.
The individual citizen has no federal constitutional right to vote for electors for the President of the United States unless and until the state legislature chooses a statewide election as the means to implement its power to appoint members of the electoral college. U. S. Const., Art. II, § 1. This is the source for the statement in McPherson v. Blacker, 146 U. S. 1, 35 (1892), that the state legislature's power to select the manner for appointing electors is plenary; it may, if it so chooses, select the electors itself, which indeed was the manner used by state legislatures in several States for many years after the framing of our Constitution. Id., at 28-33. History has now favored the voter, and in each of the several States the citizens themselves vote for Presidential electors. When the state legislature vests the right to vote for President in its people, the right to vote as the legislature has prescribed is fundamental; and one source of its fundamental nature lies in the equal weight accorded to each vote and the equal dignity owed to each voter. The State, of course, after granting the franchise in the special context of Article II, can take back the power to appoint electors. See id., at 35 (" '[T]here is no doubt of the right of the legislature to resume the power at any time, for it can neither be taken away nor abdicated''')Mark Joseph Stern at Slate:
Due in part to partisan gerrymandering, Republicans control the legislatures of 28 states. Collectively, these states have 294 electoral votes. Trump himself could not cancel the entire presidential election. But he could ask these GOP-dominated legislatures to cancel their statewide presidential elections and assign their electors to him. It’s doubtful that we will face this situation in November. But imagine a worst-case scenario: The election is approaching, and the coronavirus remains rampant in our communities. States are unsure whether they have the personnel and resources to hold an election. Congress has failed to mandate no-excuse absentee balloting, and many states have declined to implement it. Or the postal service is so hard hit that it cannot reliably carry ballots to and from voters’ residences. It’s not difficult to envision Trump’s allies in state legislatures assigning their states’ electoral votes to the president, insisting that these dire circumstances justify pulling a constitutional fire alarm.
There is one catch. This scenario presumes that state legislature have the power not only to pick electors, but also to direct them to vote for a specific candidate. States have long exercised this control over electors’ votes. But the Supreme Court will soon hear two cases brought by electors who assert that they have a constitutional right to vote for whomever they wish. They assert that state legislatures can appoint electors—the human beings themselves—but cannot then require them to vote for a particular candidate, or punish them if they do not. It seems unlikely that the court will grant “faithless electors” the ability to buck state legislatures and cast rogue votes. If the court does give electors this right, however, the entire system will be thrown into chaos. Statewide votes would become largely meaningless, because the 538 electors could “vote their conscience” no matter what the state legislature demands.
Let’s assume, though, that SCOTUS will not burn down the current system, and the court allows states to exercise their traditional authority to assign electors to candidates. This system permits legislatures to cancel or ignore the statewide presidential election and effectively decide the election. That shortcut to reelection would be profoundly anti-democratic. But so is the Electoral College itself, and we are still living with its consequences. Until both Republicans and Democrats agree to amend this Rube Goldberg machine out of the Constitution, it will remain a tool for autocrats to wield when they fear the majority has turned against them.
Thursday, March 12, 2020
Elections, Economics, Demographics, Geography
Mar-A-Lago, we have a problem:
A more elaborate model
D base is bigger
The GOP base is shrinking:
'Oregon is all one great white middle-class suburb." -- RFK, 1968
Education and the states
Hopkins paper
Illinois -- see p. 39 of Jack Segal's thesis
GOP% in Key Counties.....1988.......2016
Fairfield County, CT...........59%......38%
Nassau County, NY.............57%.......45%
Orange County, CA........ ....68%.......42%
Harris County, TX...............57%.......42%
Congressional races in 2018: the case of California
A more elaborate model
D base is bigger
The GOP base is shrinking:
'Oregon is all one great white middle-class suburb." -- RFK, 1968
Education and the states
Hopkins paper
Illinois -- see p. 39 of Jack Segal's thesis
GOP% in Key Counties.....1988.......2016
Fairfield County, CT...........59%......38%
Nassau County, NY.............57%.......45%
Orange County, CA........ ....68%.......42%
Harris County, TX...............57%.......42%
Congressional races in 2018: the case of California
Wednesday, March 11, 2020
Emergency Changes
Because of the emergency, I am revising the syllabus for the second half of the course. Note some changes.
First, because oral presentations might be tough for those with uncertain Internet connections, you will instead simply do blog posts about your research papers (example here: http://cmc-gov123.blogspot.com/2018/04/mckenzie-oral-presenation.html). Even aside from these posts, I encourage you to step up your use of the blog as a form of class participation. There will be a great deal to think about in the weeks ahead, and the blog will be a good vehicle for sharing thoughts and information.
Second, because the Congress simulation is now going to be a much shorter class exercise via Zoom, we will not have witnesses or administration officials. I regret that participation will no longer be an option for this course.
Third, I have reorganized the schedule (scroll down).
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Apr 21, 23: Party in the States II
May 5: Appraisal and Reform II
Here is the research assignment
Pick one:
- Appraise President Trump's performance as leader of the Republican Party. What are his goals for the party? In light of political and institutional constraints, how well has he done?
- Analyze the use of "message votes" (Lee, ch. 6) in 2018 and 2019. What challenges and opportunities faced each party in each chamber? Who used these votes most successfully? And how would you know that a message vote has succeeded?
- Pick any state legislature. Has it become more or less polarized over the past decade? Why?
- I may think of others! Keep an eye on this space. You may also write on another topic of your choice, subject to my approval.
The specifications:
- Essays should be typed (12-point), double-spaced, and no more than six pages long. I will not read past the sixth page. Please submit papers as Word documents, not pdfs.
- Cite your sources. Please use endnotes in the format of Chicago Manual of Style. Endnotes do not count against the page limit. Please do not use footnotes, which take up too much page space.
- Watch your spelling, grammar, diction, and punctuation. Errors will count against you. Return essays (in Word format) to the Sakai dropbox for this class by 11:59 PM, Friday, April 17. Papers will drop one gradepoint for one day’s lateness, a full letter grade after that.
========================================================================
Mar 31, Apr 2: Party in Congress I
"On ordinary legislative matters, most members of Congress don’t think anymore. They just follow whatever they’re told by their leadership." -- Rep. Justin Amash (I-MI)
- Lee, ch. 1-4
Apr 7, 9: Party in Congress II"This is a Washington, D.C. kind of lie. It's when the other person knows you're lying, and also knows you know he knows." - Henry Fonda in Advise & Consent
- Lee, ch. 5-9.
Apr 14, 16: Party in the States I
"So, I am to receive thirty percent for finance, for legal protection and political influence. Is that what you're telling me? I said that I would see you because I had heard that you were a serious man, to be treated with respect. But I must say no to you and let me give you my reasons. It's true I have a lot of friends in politics, but they wouldn't be so friendly if they knew my business was drugs instead of gambling which they consider a harmless vice." -- Vito Corleone (Marlon Brando) in The Godfather
- Hershey, ch. 13-14.
- Grossmann, ch. 1-2
RESEARCH PAPER DUE IN SAKAI DROPBOX BY FRIDAY APRIL 17
THIRD 4-PAGE ESSAY ASSIGNED APR 17, DUE IN SAKAI DROPBOX BY MAY 6
“Democrats are...the party that says government can make you richer, smarter, taller and get the chickweed out of your lawn. Republicans are the party that says government doesn't work, and then they get elected and prove it.” -- P.J. O’Rourke
- Grossmann, ch. 3-6
April 28, 30: Appraisal and Reform I
“We're like a Third World country when it comes to some of our election practices.” – Donna Brazile
- Hershey, ch. 15
- Lee Drutman, "The Case for Proportional Voting," National Affairs, Winter 2018, https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/the-case-for-proportional-voting.
- Elaine Kamarck, “The Urgent Need for Peer Review in the Presidential Nominating Process,” Brookings, October 29, 2019, https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/bigideas/the-urgent-need-for-peer-review-in-the-presidential-nominating-process/
- Other readings TBD by consultation with class.
“We all want progress. But progress means getting nearer to the place where you want to be. And if you have taken a wrong turning then to go forward does not get you any nearer. If you are on the wrong road progress means doing an about-turn and walking back to the right road and in that case the man who turns back soonest is the most progressive man.” – C.S. Lewis
- Hershey, ch. 16.
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