A more elaborate model
D base is bigger
The GOP base is shrinking:
'Oregon is all one great white middle-class suburb." -- RFK, 1968
Education and the states
Hopkins paper
Illinois -- see p. 39 of Jack Segal's thesis
GOP% in Key Counties.....1988.......2016
Fairfield County, CT...........59%......38%
Nassau County, NY.............57%.......45%
Orange County, CA........ ....68%.......42%
Harris County, TX...............57%.......42%
Congressional races in 2018: the case of California
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