Second Paper, Fall 2026

 Pick One:

1.  Prediction!

Name one House race that Cook has rated toss-up or "lean" as of this week. Predict the winner and the margin. Write a forecast memo for that race. Build your case on Carson & Jacobson's fundamentals (ch. 1-2): district partisanship, any changes from mid-decade redistricting, incumbency, candidate quality, and money. Pull each candidate's latest FEC filing. Compare your call with Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and one prediction market. Explain any disagreement.

Find one real piece of campaign material: a mailer, an ad, an email, socal media post, or a text. Analyze what it reveals about campaign strategy.  Include a photo or screenshot as an appendix.  (If you have trouble, simply email it to me.)

After Nov. 3, we tally the calls. The best forecaster wins the Anti-Polymarket Prize.  (No cash, but you can mention it on your resume or in an interview.) Accuracy does not affect your grade.  

2. "Draft Day 2028" (See Hershey ch. 9–11)

I have randomly assigned each of you a potential 2028 presidential candidate.  (See list below.)  You may swap -- with email notification to me -- but no two students may write on the same person.

Write a strategy memo to your candidate.  Carefully consider the primary calendar and delegate math under your party's rules. Assess your candidate's fundraising ability and standing in the invisible primary. Recommend one early state in which your candidate should concentrate resources and one in which the candidate should limit investment. Explain the tradeoff.

Use at least two pieces of hard evidence dated after Oct. 1, 2026, such as leadership PAC filings or early-state trips reported in local news.

Examples of strategy memos:

• Buttigieg 2020
• Cruz 2016
• Clinton 2008

For either option:

• https://cmc-gov123.blogspot.com/2026/10/second-paper-fall-2026.htmlour paper should tell how your research confirmed or disconfirmed your initial expections. Refer to one specific claim from your writeup. Identify the source that most challenged that claim and explain how your final argument change, or why you retained the claim despite that evidence.
• Identify the strongest piece of evidence against your recommendation or prediction. Explain why it does not change your conclusion, or how it caused you to revise it. Describe one specific development that would make you change your mind.
• On October 21, you will make a one-minute pitch for your prediction or strategy. Answer questions, and your paper should include a response to the question(s) you received.

Specs:

• Essays should be double-spaced, 12-point type, and no more than four pages long. I will not read past the fourth page.
• Essays should be in Word document format. Do not submit PDFs or Google Docs.
• Cite all outside sources with endnotes (not footnotes) in Chicago/Turabian style. Endnote pages do not count against the page limit.
• Misrepresenting AI-generated content as your own work is plagiarism. It could result in a referral to the Academic Standards Committee. 
• Watch your spelling, grammar, diction, and punctuation. Errors will count against you. Read Strunk & White and watch my writing lecture before writing this paper.
• Turn in essays to Canvas by 11:59 PM, Friday, October 23. (If you have trouble with Canvas, simply email it to me as a Word file.) I reserve the right to dock essays a grade point for one day’s lateness, a full letter grade after that.

1. Josh Hawley (R), U.S. senator, Missouri  PETER C.
2. Gavin Newsom (D), governor of California NICK C.
3. Marco Rubio (R), secretary of state LILY
4. Andy Beshear (D), governor of Kentucky KURT
5. Ron DeSantis (R), governor of Florida JASPER
6. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D), U.S. representative, New York DEAN
7. Glenn Youngkin (R), former governor of Virginia ISAIAH
8. Pete Buttigieg (D), former secretary of transportation SOHANI
9. JD Vance (R), vice president CHARLIE
10. Gretchen Whitmer (D), governor of Michigan KEITH
11. Ted Cruz (R), U.S. senator, Texas CHANTAL
12. Josh Shapiro (D), governor of Pennsylvania OMAR
13. Ruben Gallego (D), U.S. senator, Arizona EMILY
14. Brian Kemp (R), governor of Georgia NICK S.
15. JB Pritzker (D), governor of Illinois THEA