Although Donald Trump is projected to win the majority of delegates prior to the GOP convention, there could be a lot decided at the convention itself. Two recent articles, one by Nate Silver at 538 and another from Vox, entitled 'Contested Conventions, explained,' both come to the conclusion that the GOP candidates will have to extend their battle for the nomination to the convention.
Forecasters think Trump will come close to hitting the 1,237 delegate mark before the convention but even if overshoots it by a little he will be in for a fight in Cleveland. The delegates to the convention and no shortage of rule changes or other seemingly undemocratic party practices could undermine the result of primary voting.
The determination of a nominee through the delegates at the actual convention is the least of the GOP's concerns. The possibility of the use of a 'nuclear option' could, as Donald Trump points out, cause 'riots.' This option entails denying the popularly-selected candidate the nomination. An instructive historical instance of this occurred when Ted Kennedy tried to take the nomination from Jimmy Carter in 1980. Many believe that Kennedy's actions hurt Carter in his race with Reagan. There is a similar concern that the selection of a nominee who is not first in popular support could really hurt the GOP.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/
http://www.vox.com/2016/3/23/11280032/brokered-convention-explained
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.