VP Pick Odds

Given that we’re talking about VP nomination picks in class, I thought it would be interesting to look at the betting market favorites, courtesy of InTrade.

Personally, I think the odds for the leading Democrats to be a bit high—I would take the “other.” The Republican side has more reasonable odds for the favorites, but there will be so much unexpected at the convention that even those might be a bit high.

https://www.predictit.org/Market/1530/Who-will-win-the-2016-Democratic-vice-presidential-nomination

https://www.predictit.org/Market/1529/Who-will-win-the-2016-Republican-vice-presidential-nomination

Here are the odds for the leading candidates:

Democrats:

Julian Castro 19%

Tim Kaine 12%

Tom Perez 11%

Cory Booker 10%

Bernie Sanders 10%

Elizabeth Warren 10%

Sherrod Brown 9%

Al Franken 6%

(No others higher than 3%)

Republicans:

John Kasich 19%

Nikki Haley 10%

Marco Rubio 9%

Chris Christie 8%

Scott Walker 5%

Ted Cruz 5%

Jeff Sessions 4%

Carly Fiorina 4%

Jonie Ernst 4%

(No others higher than 3%)