Recently, the campaigns of Ted Cruz and John Kasich announced that they will be strategically working together in order to stop Donald Trump from getting the 1237 delegates that he needs to be the GOP presidential nominee in the fall. The exchange is pretty straightforward: Kasich will stop competing in Indiana and Cruz will stop competing in New Mexico and Oregon. Although Nate Cohn from the New York Times, among other reporters, believe that this deal may have the potential to stop Trump, I think it is extremely risky for both candidates.
Although I understand the rationale, this alliance assumes that:
1. Voters are strategic, too!
Voters are probably not as educated (or strategic) as Cruz and Kasich are trying to be.
Although it is true (to an extent) that voters refer to certain cues while casting their vote, it is unlikely that voters plan to be "strategic" when voting. At the end of the day, voters will personally vote for who they think is the best candidate.
2. Kasich and Cruz have similar voters.
Although Kasich and Cruz supporters might have more overlap than with Trump supporters, it is unlikely that their supporters are willing to switch over. Cruz represents the strong conservative Republicans while Kasich takes supporters who are even sick of the "Cruz" Republicans. An article in Washington Post writes, "So if you are an Indiana Republican who was for Kasich, it's hard to imagine that you agree with Cruz on almost anything. Ditto a Cruz voter in Oregon or New Mexico. " Overall, it is interesting to examine the dynamics within the electorate vs. with the candidates and this alliance will be an interesting to watch in the upcoming primaries.
Sources: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/04/25/why-the-ted-cruz-john-kasich-alliance-is-destined-to-fail/
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/26/upshot/cruz-kasich-deal-means-a-much-better-chance-to-stop-trump.html?_r=1
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