Thursday, April 28, 2016

The 2016 Election

The Tug-of-War Metaphor

Stuff That Matters a Lot:
Stuff That Matters Less:
The Autopsy: Things that matter at the margin, and in the long term
1. Messaging
2. Demographic Partners
3. Campaign Mechanics
4. Friends and Allies (Third Party Groups)
5. Fundraising
6. Campaign Finance
7. Primary Process
PROBLEM:  PARTY ORGANIZATION DOES NOT CONTROL PARTY IN GOVERNMENT, PARTISAN OUTSIDE GROUPS, OR PARTY IN THE ELECTORATE!  IF YOU REMEMBER NOTHING ELSE FROM THIS COURSE, REMEMBER THIS POINT!

The tug-of-war metaphor assumes roughly equal effort on both sides.  It also assumes that the candidates are qualified and broadly acceptable.  But the metaphor may break down with Trump:

Why Trump?




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